Boston Red Sox

I was recently able to ask Troy Patterson from Fire Brand of the AL some questions about the Red Sox. (Extremely sorry about the long wait.)

SW: How do you view David Ortiz now? He’s been officially accused of taking steroids and he seems to be on the decline. Has your image of him changed since you last won the world series in any way?

TP: It depends on how you looked at any accused/admitted/guilty user of steroids.  I found it silly to view players differently when we can never really know who did and who didn’t use.  As for the decline he fits the profile of large hulking first basemen who are usually quick to have injuries at this stage in there careers that cause a rapid decline.

SW: What makes Dustin Pedroia so special? He was able to win the MVP as a second baseman, something that rarely happens.

TP: Contact rate is the simple answer.  He can hit anything in and around the zone and with a good amount of speed he can turn more hit balls into more bases.  he is also aided by the Monster turning plenty of outs into doubles.  He probably wasn’t the best player in the AL when he won the MVP, but he wasn’t out of the conversation either.

SW: The Red Sox hired Bill James awhile back. He’s one of baseball’s well known statisticians or sabermetricians. Do you notice a way the Red Sox do business that is different than everyone else because of their mathematical approach, an approach that is kind of embodied by Bill James and his work?

TP: They were one of the first to the game, but it is quite crowded now.  There are only a few teams who don’t have an advanced statistical group.  The amount those teams trust those groups is probably questionable.  Their differences are seen mostly in their avoidance of aging players to long term deals.  One of the original tenants of Sabermetrics was to avoid players over 29, which they have broken a bit, but often why they let older players walk.

SW: Theo Epstein is one of the younger GMs in baseball. What does he do well as the team’s GM?

TP: His ability to combine statistical analysis, scouting, health reports and public image is clearly a strength.  He has become more testy with the media lately as he stands up for players he values like J.D. Drew, but usually allows his players actions to defend his moves.

SW: Josh Beckett had one of the most dominant performances by a starting pitcher in a postseason just a few years ago, but he doesn’t seem to be the most consistent. Is it just his injuries that keep him from maintaining his high level of play, or is it something else? Could this affect the way the Red Sox handle his impending free agency.

TP: I think you have it right that injuries are clearly the limitation for Beckett as he is dominant when healthy.  This has a large part to do with the team actions this offseason in signing John Lackey and allowing Beckett to enter 2010 without an extension.

SW: Why do you think the Red Sox passed on Jason Bay? He just signed with the Mets obviously. A lot of people think that when the Sox let someone walk, there’s a good reason for it. The Mets found that out when they signed Pedro and got 1 good year out of him.

TP: He falls into a dangerous category in that he is a poor defender, strikes out to often and is not a speedster.  It has been seen that this type of player declines rapidly in their 30′s andif they had reason to worry about his health then it’s even less likely they would sign him.

SW: Do you think the Red Sox can compete with the Yankees this season? They have one of the most talented clubs on baseball, and it looks like they only got better.

TP: They can surely compete with any team, but made the smart choice to not attempt to out hit them and go with pitching and defense, but still a powerful lineup.  Both teams have some issues in the rotation and bullpen to iron out, but there is no doubt they will be close this year as will the Rays.

SW: What does John Lackey do for this Red Sox rotation. It seems like they already have a deep rotation. Why shell out for another ace type pitcher?

TP: I think for the reason we already discussed.  If they don’t have faith that Beckett will be the guy going forward after 2010 then they were better served to grab an ace while they could.  They can also look at Cliff Lee and Brandon Webb after this year, but they won’t be forced to bid on those guys.

SW: What’s going with the Red Sox and their supposed pursuit of Adrian Gonzalez do you think? We’ve been hearing this rumor for months? He would be a fantastic fit in Boston, but he would cost a ton of prospects.

TP: The cost in prospects is to much and I can’t see Jed Hoyer making that type of move in his first year.  he has two years of control on Gonzalez and shouldn’t be in a rush.  This gives the fans a reason to still come out and watch them and in a weak division you never know what could happen, so why give up in February.

SW: How good do you think the Red Sox farm system is compared to others? The Red Sox always seem to have the pieces to get a big deal done. How do you think they do it?

TP: The scouting on this team combined with statistical analysis of what players develop best has been outstanding.  They have a large crop of outfielders who have similar makeups and have looked very successful so far.  The pitching crop has slowed recently, but it looks like Casey Kelly will give us something to look forward to.

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Thanks again for the interview Troy and I hope everyone checks out Fire Brand of the American League. Next up is St. Louis Cardinals.