We all know the amazing rotation the Phillies have. When the Phillies signed Cliff Lee, most Major League Baseball fans were devastated. They have four aces! Many people, were quickly giving the Phillies the division title, the NL Pennant, and the World Series trophy. Let's slow down. There a couple of reasons why we should let the season play out before giving the Phillies any hardware.
First and foremost, as the saying goes "baseball isn't played on paper". While the Phillies might look great on paper, that doesn't translate to success on the field. Looking up and down the Phillies 25 man roster, one would be awfully impressed. Leaving the rotation alone for the moment, with hitters like Ryan Howard, Raul Ibanez, Chase Utley, Jimmy Rollins, and Shane Victorino, one would be frightened by a lineup with those five. As one looks into the rotation with Cliff Lee, Roy Halladay, Roy Oswalt, and Cole Hamels, the NL Pennant should be a cakewalk! No, fact is baseball is played on the field and not on paper, and past individual success doesn't always translate into future group success.
Secondly, baseball is unpredictable. How many people do you know that actually picked the San Francisco Giants to win the World Series last year? Not many. Players that weren't supposed to do very well, have breakout years, and lead their teams to great years. It works in the reverse as well. Teams that were picked to go far into the playoffs, fail to succeed on the field, and don't meet expectations. Furthermore, just because a team succeeds in the regular season, doesn't necessarily mean a team will succeed in the playoffs. In 2001, the Seattle Mariners won 116 games in the regular season, but only lasted five games in the ALCS.
Last but not least, health is always a factor. As a Mets fan I know what injuries can mean to a team. In 2009, Sports Illustrated picked the Mets to win the World Series, however, 2009 was a year of heartbreak as one player after another went down with injuries. In order for the Phillies to succeed they must stay healthy. That's already a problem for them, Chase Utley is sitting out Spring Training games with patella tendinitis in his right knee. Over the past couple years, Jimmy Rollins, and Roy Oswalt have visited the disabled list on many occasions. Raul Ibanez's age is starting to catch up to him and his knees are letting him know.
Yes, the Phillies do look awfully good, and are awfully scary, but before we give them a trophy, let's give some other teams a chance first.
See you at the parade