While many people are being cautiously optimistic about the Mets, as well as saying they expect the Mets to win more than the widely-predicted 74 wins, I can't help but feel that this may in some way be a Half a Season for the Mets. With the financial uncertainty looming and the Wilpons' inability to find a minority-owner so far, I have a bad feeling that July 20th through July 31st could be longest days for Mets fans in recent memory.
Three questions lurk in our minds:
- Will Jose Reyes be here in 2012?
- Will Carlos Beltran be a Met in August?
- Is Johan Santana close to a return?
Those really are the big questions Mets fans have to worry about right now because once we have the answers to those questions we will know the direction this team is officially headed in. One thing to keep in mind is if we are contending still come July. If the Mets are in the hunt for the Wild Card at least, then Sandy Alderson has an extremely tough decision to make. He can risk losing Reyes to Free Agency, or he can trade him to land prospects in return. He can trade Carlos Beltran to provide a little financial flexibility this season, but if the ballclub is contending there's much less reason to trade Carlos than Reyes. He's an expiring contract anyway and you won't get as much in return. And finally, would the club risk Santana's health to reach the playoffs this year, or shut him down so he is 100% for 2012?
In the end, I think those answers come down to Finances and what would be best for the team down the stretch. That seems to have been Alderson's direction since the day he walked through our doors and I am perfectly fine with that. However I also believe that if the Mets are contending in July, if Santana is still on track for an early-August return, and if Beltran is playing well, that Alderson may consider trying to trade for an expiring contract, maybe a player who can provide an extra boost for the Mets down the stretch. Maybe the thought of "proving all the doubters wrong" will get the best of him, and showing that he picked the right manager to lead this ballclub to the Playoffs, something very few expect possible. You can't deny that thought will run through his mind as he evaluates this team and what is more important to the fans and the owners.
Unfortunately, Alderson also understands that if we make the playoffs and are eliminated immediately, the fans will expect even more in 2012. So if Reyes wasn't in our future and we had a young unproven Right Fielder, it would definitely be harder to improve this team and accomplish even more. Thats why I still believe that even if we are right in the hunt for the Wild Card some late-July, Jose Reyes, if not in our long-term plans, will be traded for prospects, assuming the right deal is there. If no legitimate offers come rolling in then obviously Alderson will pull Reyes back and hope we can reach the playoffs. However if the right deal is on the table, I think Alderson will pull the trigger, reinforcing his stance on 'financial flexibility' and, of course, 'Moneyball'.
