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Guest Message by DevFuse

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@  Drucifer : (27 May 2016 - 16:26)

;gt; with :SL: plus ;gp; and :gamenotes: :Posted:

@  Drucifer : (27 May 2016 - 15:16)

Well I'm back. The cat scan showed some fluid on my lungs. The PF test result was that breathing problem comes from my excessive weight.

@  yogib8 : (27 May 2016 - 13:05)

Today on MLB Central, in a discussion about Cano, the definition of a line drive was mentioned as having an exit angle of 10-25 degrees.

@  METS FANG : (27 May 2016 - 12:38)

need to give this kid a "welcome to the majors!" drubbing - though it seems like every time the Mets face an untested pitcher, they make him look like an ace.

@  thomasam : (27 May 2016 - 11:53)

Big game tonight, should be interesting

@  thomasam : (27 May 2016 - 11:53)

Oh, didn't know that was going to post as an image, thought it would be a link

@  Drucifer : (27 May 2016 - 11:32)

Doing a PF Test this afternoon. I should be back by 4PM.

@  Drucifer : (27 May 2016 - 11:30)

;mets; :stats: :updated:

@  Drucifer : (27 May 2016 - 11:11)

:MiLB: ;recap; :Posted:

@  METS FANG : (27 May 2016 - 11:00)

so its not a matrix, its a single qualifier

@  yogib8 : (27 May 2016 - 09:23)

Good stuff Saxon

@  Saxon : (26 May 2016 - 19:54)


The collision between ball and bat lasts for only one-1,000th of a second, and a difference of a quarter inch can mean the difference between a screaming liner for a double and a lazy fly ball out. The impact on results is great, as 75% of line drives end up as hits, as compared to only 21% of fly balls resulting in a batter reaching base. It also makes a great difference in how much time a fielder has to react. A typical liner travels 300 feet in four seconds, whereas a fly ball travels that same distance in a half-second longer. The league-wide line drive rate hold steady at near 20% each season.


@  Saxon : (26 May 2016 - 19:06)

Guy might have gotten more distance and hit the ball harder, but the height of the arc and the hang time makes it the equivalent of a fly ball...or even an extra point kick, is a line drive because you are trying to nail it straight above the upright (whereas, a 53 yard field goal attempt would never get there high enough if it wasn't more of a fly ball vs a liner

@  Saxon : (26 May 2016 - 19:03)

a line drive vs a fly ball has nothing to do with distance, or even velocity...it's about angle of trajectory...Cespedes has hit some homeruns that were line drives (barely going more than about 20-30 feet high on the top of their arc)...think Phil Simms 10 yard pass vs Ray Guy punt...

@  Drucifer : (26 May 2016 - 17:54)

Didn't look at the chat in that format.

@  Drucifer : (26 May 2016 - 17:53)

:st: :updated: with new :dodgersmini: pitcher making his MLB debut

@  METS FANG : (26 May 2016 - 17:23)

:( Dru - you couldn't at least leave the link :'(

@  Drucifer : (26 May 2016 - 16:56)

Sorry, but I'm not liking this 24 plus one attitude of the team's decision maker when it comes Harvey.

@  Drucifer : (26 May 2016 - 16:54)

All this statistic chatter is a perfect sleeping pill.

@  Drucifer : (26 May 2016 - 16:52)

Cut out posting huge images in chat.

@  thomasam : (26 May 2016 - 16:44)

Whoa didn't know that would embed but it's still worth watching

@  thomasam : (26 May 2016 - 16:43)

For the crazy/hot matrix I would recommend this:

@  METS FANG : (26 May 2016 - 16:34)

reminds me of Barny Stinsen's crazy/hot scale :) http://i.imgur.com/YvbZE26.jpg

@  METS FANG : (26 May 2016 - 16:33)

lol, so all our assumptions were validated by fan graphs without any actual information :)

@  brian stark : (26 May 2016 - 16:29)


@  brian stark : (26 May 2016 - 16:29)

Checking fangraphs, they say the following: "A ball isn’t a fly ball or a line drive, it is hit at X launch angle, Y degrees from center, at Z velocity" I guess they take that and observational assesment to determine what is what.

@  brian stark : (26 May 2016 - 16:13)

There is a metric, a certain angle and speed. What it is? I have no idea.

@  Drucifer : (26 May 2016 - 16:07)

:MiLB: ;recap; :Posted:

@  METS FANG : (26 May 2016 - 16:04)

how high does a LD have to go before its a fly ball, or on the flip side, how fast does a flyball have to go before its a line drive? :)

@  METS FANG : (26 May 2016 - 16:04)

do we know the parameter difference between a fly ball and a line drive?

@  yogib8 : (26 May 2016 - 15:59)

Working against Murphy is the increase in FB% which is a career high, generally FB hitters have lower BAbip and Murphy's .177 is no different.

@  METS FANG : (26 May 2016 - 15:52)

speaking of Urias, how do the dodgers, who regularly make the playoffs and regularly trade away their farm for personnel have the top pitching prospect in baseball??? ugh, Thats potentially a nasty 1-2!

@  METS FANG : (26 May 2016 - 15:50)

because the OF wall is just an extension of the boarders of the playing field

@  METS FANG : (26 May 2016 - 15:49)

granted, this is all interpretable differences. But a ball that is hit by the batter that yields any result should be in play. If you're going to call over the fence out of play, then you should be calling outside the white lines out of play too

@  METS FANG : (26 May 2016 - 15:47)

under that logic, a home run is in play.

@  yogib8 : (26 May 2016 - 15:46)

thomasam, a balance for the home run hitters whose homeruns don't qualify in BAbip, neither do the 180 strikeouts.

@  Drucifer : (26 May 2016 - 15:45)

The New York Times has hired James Wagner to cover the Mets. He most recently has worked for the Washington Post as a Nationals beat writer. He is expected to begin June 13.

@  yogib8 : (26 May 2016 - 15:44)


@  yogib8 : (26 May 2016 - 15:43)

Granted there is a factor of luck involved in BAbip, but there are also aspects under a batters control. Of 254 players with 100 PA, Murphy is 21st in hard contact and 10th in soft contact. Hard hit balls have a better chance of finding green than a soft contact 10 hopper. Murphy is also 26th in LD percentage. The current BAbip is not sustainable, but Kevin Long found a new Murphy last season. To his credit Murphy adapted, unlike others who are deaf.

@  thomasam : (26 May 2016 - 15:23)

I mean granted it only "hurts you" in this particular stat which is only tracked by serious stat heads but still

@  thomasam : (26 May 2016 - 15:22)

Going back to BABIP though I really am surprised it doesn't include homers. Yes, they're technically not 'in play" but if you hit a ball that hits one foot down on the wall that hurts you but if it goes over it doesn't

@  thomasam : (26 May 2016 - 15:21)

It should be an interesting night, this guy is the most hyped prospect since Strasburg

@  thomasam : (26 May 2016 - 15:21)

Yeah, he's more than a regular prospect

@  brian stark : (26 May 2016 - 15:01)

Urias, the guy is supposed to be a BEAST. Only 19, though, so who knows.

@  Drucifer : (26 May 2016 - 14:51)

Dodgers have changed their Friday starter to a prospect

@  brian stark : (26 May 2016 - 14:37)

It is IN PLAY! Batting Average on Balls IN PLAY!

@  METS FANG : (26 May 2016 - 14:23)

(26 May 2016 - 14:18) Edit icon It's not a penalty, it's a stat to show what happens when the ball is struck by the batter and is in the field of play. A sac fly is in the field of play, a homer isn't.

then why does a ball caught in foul territory not get eliminated?

@  brian stark : (26 May 2016 - 13:41)

That is a common misperception. Even including this season (in which Murphy's BABIP is a ridiculous .416), Murphy's career rate is a more reasonable .319. Duda's is is .287 for his career and Granderson's is .298. While the assumption that a player who hits more line drives will have a better BABIP than a high strikeout/high fly guy has some merit, it's not as big as you would think. The point of the stat is that ON AVERAGE, once a ball is hit, you can expect it to land safely about 30% of the time. If you have a rate significantly above or below that, you can expect some regression to the mean. Murphy is a perfect example. There is NO WAY that he will have a BABIP of .400+ for the whole season. Since his whole game is basically based on that, he will regress back by the time the season is over. Does this mean he will end up at .260? Not saying that. Does it mean he will hit .320? Not saying that, either. The stat just demonstrates that he is hitting in a great streak of good luck right now. It's only a tool to explain what is happening. Baseball is a puzzle, and the more pieces you have, the clearer the picture is.

@  Saxon : (26 May 2016 - 13:28)

deGrom/Familia should have good babip's; Niese/Harvey not so much

@  Saxon : (26 May 2016 - 13:28)

the only problem that I have with the BaBip as a stat is that people act like anything less than or greater than .300 for a Babip is unlucky/lucky...whereas a guy like Daniel Murphy or Dee Gordon are typically going to have a high Babip; whereas a Lucas Duda or Curtis Granderson are almost always going to have a low Babip...line drive hitters that can place the ball all over the field; and guys that can get a basehit out of a clean grounder to the shortstop's backhand are going to escalate their babip, and dead pull power hitters (particularly lefties) are going to hit a lot of balls that are outs...plus in the case of pitchers, a "contact" pitcher without a good sinker is typically going to have a high babip

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