Football season is over, so we all know what that means; baseball season! Voluntary camp has already started and Pitchers and Catchers report early next week. While there is still snow(well ice now actually) here in New York, the sun is shining and the bats are freshly polished in Port St. Lucie. Although it is quite clear that 2011 is a transition year for the Mets, I am very excited for the 2011 season. While Mets fans and non-Mets fans alike are quickly counting out the Mets for 2011, I'm not willing to do that just yet, for several reasons.

I recently finished Moneyball, and towards the end author Michael Lewis discusses how in 2002, when the Oakland A's acquired Ray Durham, it transformed Durham. Durham, a very aggressive baserunner, used to make single into doubles, doubles into triples, no longer was that aggressive. Durham, who averaged a stolen base every 4.8 games on the White Sox, averaged one stolen base every nine games on the A's. Lewis also noted that current Mets Vice President of player development and scouting, Paul DePodesta ran numbers, on how stealing bases did more harm than good. I began to think to myself, Durham pre-A's sounds a lot like a player we all know and love, Jose Reyes. What effect will the new regime have on Reyes? New Mets General Manager Sandy Alderson's first move was picking up Jose Reyes' option for 2011, at the time Alderson was quoted as saying:  "A long-term deal is not out of the question," Alderson said. "It is something we can certainly discuss at a future date."  But in an interview last week  Alderson said that he would like to first see Reyes play a year before making any decisions. Is that because Alderson & Co. want to see if Reyes can play well in their system?  Do they want to see if Reyes could be more like Hanley Ramirez? More broadly, what will happen to the usually run happy Mets? When Citi Field was first built there were many skeptics wondering about the dimensions of Citi Field, the Wilpons said they built the stadium with pitching, defense speed in mind. At Alderson's press conference he was asked about the dimensions, and said he had no plans in the immediate future to move in the fences. Last week in that interview, Alderson said he wants to see Citi Field for a year, before making any decisions, although ideally he would like it to more a hitters park. Which is it? Does Alderson want to live by the Mets philosophy of pitching, defense and speed, or does he want to do the moneyball approach of on base percentage, and slugging percentage? 

So I decided to do some research on Alderson's A's, DePodesta's Dodgers, and J.P. Ricciardi's(special assistant to the GM) Blue Jays, to see how run happy, or non-run happy they actually were, to help shed some light on the subject. (All stats courtesy of Baseball Reference)

Alderson first:

Keep in mind many of these years were with Rickey Henderson. In 1983, Henderson had 103 stolen bases alone. If we take out 1983, the averages change to 22, 115, 50, and 165 respectively. 

DePodesta:

While a small sample, we still see what DePodesta's philosophy is, which possibly led to his firing at the end of 2005.

Ricciardi: 

If one were to average out Alderson, DePodesta, and Ricciardi's averages, you would get 26 triples, 92 stolen bases, 40 caught stealing's, and 132 total stolen bases attempts.

Now let's compare those numbers with numbers from the Mets last six seasons(from the beginning of the Minaya regime):

As one can clearly see, the philosophy that the new front office's philosophy differs greatly with what we've been used to. I think that's exactly why Alderson is waiting a year before making any drastic moves, he wants to see how this team can play his baseball, in this ballpark(the way it is). While Alderson has not said it straight out, we see clearly from his words and his actions (or lack thereof) that he sees 2011 as a transition year. He wants to see how the New York Mets play Sandy Alderson's style of baseball. Whatever the case is, there is one thing that we know for sure, there will be no more sacrifice bunts in the first inning.

2010 has come and gone, and once again the Mets failed to reach the postseason. It was a season full of its ups and downs. It was a season that had a bit of everything. It was a season with hope, success, failure, and despair. All in all, 2010 was a season where the Mets had their second consecutive sub-.500 season, and their fourth consecutive season where they failed to reach the postseason.

Catcher-  Coming out of 2009 one of the unknowns the Mets had was catcher. Omir Santos came off an impressive season, but was he really ready for a full season defensively or offensively? Was prospect Josh Thole ready to be the everyday starter? Mets management decided the answer to both those questions was no, and went out and signed two veteran catchers: Rod Barajas and Henry Blanco.  Just like the Mets started with a bang so did Barajas. In the month of April a month where the Mets went 14-9, Barajas hit .227 with 5 home runs and 11 RBIs.  While the Mets veered off course for a bit in the month of May, Barajas stayed right on course. Barajas hit 6 home runs and 19 RBIs with a .304 average in the month of May. Two months into the season, Barajas was hitting .265 with 11 home runs, and 30 RBIs. Meanwhile, although Henry Blanco wasn't quite as impressive with the bat, he proved to be a great defender, with some occasional pop. As the season went on Barajas' offense rapidly faded. Over the next four months of season Barajas hit only one home run and drove in only four. On August 22nd, Barajas was "traded" to the Los Angeles Dodgers for cash. On June 25th with Barajas bench ridden with lower back pain, prospect Josh Thole was called up and never went back down. Thole who impressed many with his bat in September 2009 was considered not quite ready for the major leagues, due to a lack of defensive skills. After about three months in AAA, Thole looked much better behind the plate, and perhaps got some help being under the tutelage of veterans Rod Barajas, and Henry Blanco. Thole, impressed fans with his knack for making contact, and never being an easy out.  Fans realized this on July 3rd when Thole worked a 10 pitch walk against rookie phenom Stephen Strasburg. In that at bat Thole fouled countless fastballs gauged in the upper 90's. Thole ended the 2010 season with a .277 batting average with three home runs(one of them a walk off home run) and 17 RBIs in 73 games. Defensively, Thole threw out 44 percent of potential base runners, making just three errors for a .992 fielding percentage. 27 year old Mike Nickeas also got five games behind the plate during September and got two hits in his ten at bats. Nickeas was 0-3 in throwing out potential base stealers.

First Base- The plan going into 2010 was to have Daniel Murphy start first base for the New York Mets. That plan changed quickly when Murphy went down with a bad injury. The Mets decided that free agent pickup(minor league contract) and former Mets farm hand Mike Jacobs should be the one to man first base for the 2010 season.  From day one of the regular season, it was clear that Jacobs was not the right man for the job. Jacobs(who was traded for Carlos Delgado before 2006), in seven games in 2010, batted .208 with one home run and two RBIs. In 24 at bats, Mike Jacobs struck out seven times- that's about a strikeout every three and half at bats. Fans were getting fed up with the Jacobs regime and wanted phenom Ike Davis to get called up to play first base. On April 19th, Mets fans got their wish, Ike Davis was called up(Jacobs was later traded for a Player To Be Named Later). From the start fans around the league could see why Mets fans wanted the 23 year old Davis to be called up. Davis plays a great defense, has tremendous power, and has a good eye at the plate. Davis finished the season with 19 home runs, 71 RBIs, and a .264 batting average. 

Second Base-  Entering 2010 the Mets only had one option at second base- Luis Castillo. Castillo was coming off of a season where he was the only consistent Mets player batting .302 in 2009. However, it was clear that Castillo's defense was mediocre at best, his health was diminishing, and his offense was below average(although he had a good season in 2009). In early June Castillo was placed on the 15-day disabled list, leading to the promotion of 20 year old Ruben Tejada. Tejada and Davis instilled an energitic feel into the team, leading the Mets to an 18-8 record in the month of June. Tejada also played an impressive defense, and an obvious improvement over Castillo. But Tejada dissapointed with the bat, batting only .217 in the first half. When Castillo came off the DL shortly after the All Star Break, manager Jerry Manuel decided to put Castillo back in the starting lineup. Sometime after Manuel decided to change his mind and go back with Tejada. At the end of the season, Tejada got most of the playing time with Castillo playing a limited amount of time. At the end of the season, Castillo ended up with a .235 batting average, with zero home runs, and 17 RBIs in 86 games. Tejada(between shortstop and second base), ended up batting .213 with one home run, and 13 RBIs in 78 games.

Third Base-  Everyone knew what the plan for third base was coming into 2010. The face of the franchise- David Wright. Wright was coming off an uncommon season for Wright, where he hit only 10 home runs, and 72 RBIs. The question coming into the season was "Can David Wright get back to being David Wright?" In other words, could Wright get back to hitting 25 home runs and driving in 100 runs? Wright was determined to quiet his skeptics on day one, hitting a three run homer in his first at bat of the season. There were two problems with Wright early in the season, one that would last the whole season, one the quickly got solved. Wright's strikeout numbers were on a record pace(and eventually did set a Mets record, with 161 strikeouts), and Wright's throws were commonly off track. However, Wright's throwing problems would quickly go away, as soon as Wright was comfortable with Ike Davis at first base, he was making more accurate throws, and when they weren't so accurate Davis would save him, by making a good scoop, or making a good stretch. Wright had an amazing first half, a first half that led to talks of Wright arguably being the NL MVP of the first half. Wright had agreat first half, thanks to an amazing June, when he hit .404 with 6 home runs and 29 RBIs. In the end Wright ended the season with a .283 batting average with 29 home runs, and 103 RBIs. Overall, Wright had a very nice season, but one thing Wright must improve is the strikeout rate. As mentioned above, Wright set a Mets record for most strikeouts in a season. The Mets need someone to step up and be a real clutch hitter, and I think Wright needs to be the guy who does this, and the only way he can become a type of a clutch hitter, is if he can significantly reduce that strikeout rate.

Shortstop-  Coming into 2010 the question was again asked "Can Jose Reyes stay healthy?" To start the season, no. Reyes started the season with a thyroid problem. Reyes was not allowed to do any baseball activities until his thyroid levels lowered. Meanwhile, the Mets decided to play veteran utility infielder Alex Cora, and 20 year old Ruben Tejada until Reyes returned. Luckily for the Mets, Reyes missed only four games, because Tejada and Cora were just not cutting it offensively. It took a little bit for Reyes to find his stroke at the plate, and in the field, but when he got going, he was the Reyes Mets fans remembered and loved. On April 23rd, Reyes' 14th game, Jerry Manuel decided to change things up a bit, and moved Reyes to the third spot in the order. It was evident to all that Reyes was uncomfortable in that position. Over the 20 game span that Reyes was in the three hole, Reyes had a batting average of .207 with zero home runs and six RBIs. Reyes had a miserable .253 OBP, which led to only six steals over the 20 game span. For one reason or another, it took manager Jerry Manuel much longer to realize that his "experiment" wasn't working well, than it took for us fans to realize. Over the next 38 games, Reyes slowly got back on track to being himself. Just as Reyes was hitting the best he was all season, yet again, an injury befell him. On June 30th with the Mets playing Puerto Rico, Reyes was scratched from the lineup with an oblique strain. Reyes missed the next seven games with the injury. On July 6th, the switch-hitting Reyes returned to the lineup, only able to bat from the right side, even against right handed pitchers. That did not work. It was clear Reyes was uncomfortable watching pitching come in to the plate from right handers on the right side of the plate, and was way off. After experimenting with that for four games, Reyes was benched for the next five games. Meanwhile, Luis Castillo was on the DL and Alex Cora was playing second base while Ruben Tejada was playing shortstop. As mentioned by second base, Tejada did not show much with the bat, but instilled a certain energy in the team, leading the Mets fantastic month of June, and first half of July. On July 19th, Reyes returned back to the lineup and was there to stay. Or so we thought. On August 26th, Reyes was pulled from the game, due to re-aggravating his right oblique. Reyes would return on September 10th, and play for the rest of the season healthy. Although it was yet again, another injury riddled season for Reyes, when healthy, he reminded Mets fans why he is beloved. Reyes played with swagger, energy, and always looking to take an extra base. Although many could argue David Wright was the Mets MVP, I would disagree and say Reyes was. The saying that is often said about Reyes is "As Reyes goes, the Mets go." Mets fans saw how true this was. Oddly enough, when Jose Reyes was struggling(for the most part), so was David Wright. It is clear that the Mets MVP was Reyes. Reyes' final numbers were: a .282 average, 11 home runs, 54 RBIs, 30 steals, and 10 triples. Reyes ended the season with a total of 70 extra base hits, in just 133 games.

Parts two and three to come later in the week.

You've probably heard by now that the Mets have let Jerry Manuel and Omar Minaya go on Monday. Although there were rumors of the Mets reassigning Minaya to a lesser role in the organization, ownership decided to let the new General Manager decide who he wants on his staff. The Wilpons explained in their Press Conference today, that they are just as annoyed as us fans. 

This move was a long time coming. Jeff Wilpon, Mets COO said the only reason these moves weren't made earlier is because before the season ownership said they would give Minaya and Manuel another chance, and ownership was committed to giving them a whole season. While the Mets were just one game away from going to the World Series just a short four years ago, for Mets fans it's been a long four years. 2007 ended in heartbreak with the Mets blowing a seven game lead with 17 games to go. In 2008, the Mets again couldn't hold on onto a playoff spot as the dog days of September wound down. 2009 was a season of injury and anguish, players fell like dominoes getting injured. This season, the Mets started off strong and were playing well up until the All-Star Break, and then forgot how to hit. After four seasons like that, especially 2007, 2008, and the way this season ended, it seems like the Mets just ran out of power as the dog days of summer came, and change certainly the dugout was necessary.

Many Mets fans will remember Jerry Manuel's first game managing the Mets, when he forced Jose Reyes to come out of the game. Manuel managed to get the Mets back on track in 2008, but again the Mets fell a game short of the playoffs. While 2009 you can't really blame on anyone(except maybe the medical staff), 2010 you could blame on him. As noted earlier, 2010 started off well but the Mets seemingly forgot to hit following the All-Star Break. I've never seen a whole team not hit for a significant amount of time as the Mets did earlier this season. While you can blame this on the hitting coach rather than the Manager, he is called a manager for a reason, and he should be managing a team properly motivate the team, or change the approach when change deems necessary.

As I wrote a couple months ago in evaluating Minaya, his tenure as Mets GM was very up and down. He made a lot of right moves, and made the Mets relevant again. Again, as I wrote in the post, while all that is great, none of that matters now. As the Fred and Jeff Wilpon said today, this is New York, and you must win. If you don't win, your past doesn't matter. While I wrote in that post that really Omar should go because the deals he gave Oliver Perez and Luis Castillo, it was more than just that , if you look over the moves Minaya made, he didn't exactly know which direction to go. At times, it looked like he was trying to rebuild, and times it looked like he was trying to get a championship now. While the Wilpons and Minaya said they want to build there team around pitching and defense, Minaya goes out and signs Jason Bay, a power hitter, with bad knees, and certainly not a good defender (at least that was our impression), while Carl Crawford, the perfect player for Citi Field is going to be a free agent in the off season. 

All in all, change was necessary, while it should have been done earlier, ownership decided to give Minaya and Manuel a full season, and change is coming. It was a good sign to see ownership open and honest today at the Press Conference, and explaining they are just frustrated as us fans.

With the rosters expanding on Wednesday, the Mets announced Tuesday night that they will call up RHP Jenrry Mejia and OF Lucas Duda. While we all know who Mejia is, most of us have may not even heard Duda's name before. So who exactly is Lucas Duda?

Lucas Duda was born on February 3, 1986 in Los Angeles California.  Duda went to Arlignton High in Riverside, California. At Arlington High,  Duda in his Junior season hit .493 with nine home runs, and 33 RBIs. Following High School, Duda went to USC for College, Duda in 143 games at USC, hit .274 with 11 HRs with 81 RBIs. Duda was drafted by the Mets in the seventh round of the 2007 draft. In the minors, Duda has gradually progressed. Duda started the 2010 season in AA Binghamton.  Duda was so successful in Binghamton that he was called up to Buffalo after only 45 games in Binghamton.  Duda this season combined throughout Buffalo and Binghamton in 145 games, h .304 batting average with 23 HRs and 87 RBIs. If those numbers don't impress you, Duda had a streak earlier this season where he hit a Home Run in five straight games. Okay, so those are his numbers, but what about the guy himself? Is he a future Mets outfielder?

Toby Hyde from Mets Minor League Blog had the following to say about Duda:

"As recently as Tuesday, I heard that Duda was not guaranteed to get a big league look in September.  At the time I thought that was silly, in large part because the 24-year old Duda has pounded out a .314/.389/.610 line in 70 games in AAA with 23 doubles and 17 homeruns.  The left-handed hitter has massacred righties at a .348/.421/.663 rate.  He’s a more natural first baseman, who’s played more leftfield than first in the last two years.  In 2008, he played 118 games at first for St. Lucie.  Last year in Binghamton, he played 49 games at first and 42 in the outfield, while this year, he’s up to 95 in the outfield and just 14 at first.  He’s always hit for average and controled the strike zone.  This year, he’s turned his big strong frame into usable game power."

 

Joe D of Mets Merized Online had his own personal take on Duda:  

"I took a look at Duda’s stats and I’ve come to the determination that he could be very similar to Adam Dunn. Why Dunn? Well for one, his defensive limitations are strikingly similar, but besides murdering baseballs, one other thing that Adam Dunn does very well is he draws a lot of walks. And you know what? So does Lucas Duda, and this season he has a higher walk rate than Dunn. (Duda (.575) also has a higher slugging percentage than Dunn (.537) as well.)….Since his promotion to Triple-A, he leads the league in extra-base hits, home runs, RBI, and slugging percentage. God knows the Mets can use all the offense we can get right now, but more than that, I want to see him get some regular at-bats as we complete the garbage time portion of another lost season. I want to see if he is really as bad as they say in leftfield and if his bat more than makes up for the lack of a glove"

From what I have read today, Duda is not the most talented defender, Duda is a natural first baseman, but could play a "decent" left field. So is he a future Mets outfielder? Well there is one thing we know for sure, he can hit.  

To see some clips of Duda's work, click on the links below.

Duda Diving Catch Duda 5th Straight Game