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Bad April Decision, Great May Rebounds

Written by Brian Kalinka 10:10 AM, May 21st, 2011

It seems like I just watched this same Broadway musical 1 year ago. 

Remember last season when the Mets started Mike Jacobs at first base, and batting cleanup? Remember how everyone was fuming that Ike Davis didn't make the opening day roster and start at first base, which we all knew he deserved? 

I feel like it's all happening again in 2011. Instead of giving the 2B job to Justin "Red Rocket" Turner, who clearly was the top performer in Spring Training, we went to a decision to merely protect a player we acquired specifically to compete at that spot. It's just a story that keeps repeating itself each year, and I expect the same thing to happen next year. While a lot of us hoped Nick Evans would make the roster, he was bumped for Willie Harris, who we signed in the off season. Rather than give the ball to Dillon Gee as our #5 pitcher, a roster spot he clearly earned in Spring Training, we gave it to two pitchers with injury-riddled careers — and now one of them, Chris Young, is done for the year. 

Sometimes I really question our organization's ability to put the right players on the field. They played around too much with Fernando Martinez, and are doing it again by wasting the 22-year old's talent on our bench, and they continuously burn out the first month of the season trying to preserve the untalented players they acquired in the off season. Maybe they are trying to prove that they were right to acquire these players, but it seems to always result in making a big roster change. That change has happened, and for the better. Dillon Gee has been very good for us, coming out of Triple-A Buffalo and making 8 appearances, 5 starts. During his time here he has a 3-0 record with a 3.44 ERA and a 1.265 WHIP. While he is allowing roughly the same amount of walks and hits per inning pitched as last year, his strikeout ratio has gone up already. Last year he struck out 4.6 batters per 9 innings, this year he has 6.6 per 9 innings. 

Justin Turner is finally getting the starting time he deserves, and I have to admit I think he should remain in the lineup on a daily-basis, at second base, when Ike Davis returns to the lineup. He has just been too good to throw back on the bench or play in a platoon situation. Turner simply has this confidence that can't be taken away, and if he continues to hit even half as well as he has the last 10 days then I want him in my lineup every day. The kid's got 55 at bats, 1 home run, .364 AVG, 14 RBIs & 7 doubles already. 

I just hope the Mets stop making the same mistakes in April. They seem to correct them come May, but it's just becoming an old act at this point. All the fans knew who belonged and didn't belong here on Opening Day, and yet management still screwed up. Granted, they can't be perfect — but sometimes their mistakes are just silly. With Emaus and Young, they were silly. 

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Could the Mets be Buyers?

Written by Brandon Lee 11:11 AM, May 5th, 2011

I've heard a lot about the Mets trading Jose Reyes and Carlos Beltran by the All-Star break. While trading Beltran makes sense to me, trading Reyes does not. I'm not the GM though, so it doesn't really matter. This is Sandy Alderson's team and if he wants to rebuild it, he can.

The Mets are struggling right now and there is no doubt about that. They are tied for the second worst record in the league, are six games below .500 and are in last place in the NL East. But when I watch the Mets play I don't see a bad team. I see a team that is in almost every game they play, no matter who they are facing. They've had a couple of games when they've gotten blown out, but that happens.

When Angel Pagan comes back, this line-up can go toe-to-toe with any line-up in baseball. It has a nice mix of speed, power, and contact hitters, and they can put a lot of runs on the board. Unfortunately, the Mets haven't had their whole line-up healthy and playing yet this season. But with Pagan coming back soon, we'll be able to see it in full swing, no pun intended.

The main problem with this team is pitching. They have two our their key members of the bullpen on the DL right now in Bobby Parnell and Pedro Beato, and one of the best pitchers in baseball, Johan Santana, set to come off the DL in late June, early July. It may not seem like a big deal to get 13 or 14 starts from him this season, but when he comes back it will make the whole rotation better.

So what if the Mets are in the Wild Card hunt when Johan comes back? Is it so impossible to think? What if they start winning these one run and two run games and put together another winning streak? Is it possible that the Mets might look to add a starting pitcher at the trade deadline?

Maybe Mark Buehrle from the Chicago White Sox if they fall far enough out of it? Not a lot of big names out there that could be available, but they could add someone to improve their rotation. Maybe they'll look to improve their bullpen by adding Heath Bell or Matt Capps? A power hitter for the bench would also be nice. It's still hard to tell who will be available, but there should be some players out there that can help the Mets.

So let's say their line-up is 100% healthy, Johan comes back into the rotation, they move Chris Capuano to the bullpen, and they trade for, let's say… Heath Bell. Welcome back to New York.

Line-Up:

  1. Jose Reyes
  2. Angel Pagan
  3. David Wright
  4. Carlos Beltran
  5. Ike Davis
  6. Jason Bay
  7. Daniel Murphy
  8. Josh Thole

Rotation:

  1. Johan Santana
  2. Mike Pelfrey
  3. R.A. Dickey
  4. Jon Niese
  5. Chris Young

Bullpen:

  • Francisco Rodriguez
  • Heath Bell
  • Jason Isringhausen
  • Bobby Parnell
  • Pedro Beato
  • Chris Capuano
  • Dillon Gee

That's a pretty nice looking team right there. Question is, will it be good enough to win enough games to get that Wild Card spot.

Maybe I'm just kidding myself and I'm in denial that this season is over and the Mets are going to have to trade my favorite players away. Maybe after the deadline Reyes, Beltran, Pelfrey, Rodriguez, Young, Capuano, and Izzy will all be gone. But hey, everyone else is talking about dismantling this team, why not try to just make it better?

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Do We Expect Too Much?

Written by Brian Kalinka 13:13 PM, April 16th, 2011

I think the main reason a lot of us are calling the Mets dead and a disaster at this early point in the season is we continue to see failure, and deep down inside we know what talent is on the field and expect them to lose. However I notice that we also, myself included, expect way too much out of some of these players heading into each season. And quite frankly, maybe it's time we lowered our expectations and accept them for who they might be — mediocre. 

The one main aspect that intrigues me the most about this Mets team is their youth and the potential we have down in the minor leagues. Pitchers like Jenrry Mejia, Brad Holt, Jeurys Familia & Matt Harvey have great potential at being vital parts of our rotation down the line, and when you see young kids like Ike Davis, Lucas Duda & Josh Thole make their way into the big leagues with early success we just automatically assume they have not peaked. Unfortunately, some players perform outstandingly in AA & AAA and hit the big leagues at their peak. Unfortunately when it comes to players like Ike Davis, Jonathon Niese & Mike Pelfrey, I already fear that they have peaked and this is the highest they can perform. The only one I think still has a lot of room to improve is Ike Davis mostly due to his outstanding power and ability to drive the ball to the opposite field. Yet when we look at the rest of this team, for some reason we either:

 

A) Expect a lot out of each individual player, probably more than we should. We assume that pitchers who have had injury-riddled careers will provide stability in the back end of our rotation. We sign multiple players to our bullpen with very little money, and clearly other teams with more financial flexibility passed up on the arms of Taylor Buchholz & DJ Carrasco. A kid like Pedro Beato was added to the bullpen because he is a Rule V pick. He has great potential, but I don't think he's ready, and thus we kept him on the roster to avoid losing him outright. We gave a 2nd base starting gig to a second baseman who provides less offensive firepower (something we NEED) than Daniel Murphy because his defensive work is supposedly better and, of course once again, he is a Rule V draft pick. We expect a young catcher who basically hits for AVG and the occasional double to step up and be an offensive weapon, as well as bounce a kid like Lucas Duda from AAA to MLB to AAA to MLB whenever someone struggles or we suffer another injury. We expect two young pitchers, Mike Pelfrey & Jonathon Niese, to 1) be an Ace and 2) go from being the #4 pitcher to being the #2 pitcher, something that at a young age he is not ready to undertake. And lastly, we expect the nicest man in the clubhouse to be a leader and someone who will grab a player by the collar and yell in his face when he plays with a lack of motivation — David Wright. 

Nothing against David, but he's just too nice. To be a leader you have to be good with the Media but a stern vocal asset in the clubhouse, something I just don't see in him. 

B) We expect average ball from each individual player yet assume it will transpire into absolute success. We expect our top 3 power hitters to hit 28, 25, 22 Home Runs, and for our top base stealer to bat a .280 average and steal 40-50 bases. Unfortunately we expect these guys to come through with runners in scoring position — Newsflash, this is a very similar lineup to 2010 and that lineup rarely came through with men in scoring position. 

What does this mean? We live on Fantasy Island. It's plain and simple. Our expectations are through the roof and quite ridiculous at times. We expected two young, unproven arms to lead our rotation, for an aging knuckleballer with 1 successful year to provide stability along with two pitchers bouncing back from major arm surgeries. Our $120M Ace can't stay healthy and may never again be what he once was, and when he is healthy and dominant our lineup and/or bullpen kicks him in the crotch. 

Maybe this team will turn things around and with a 4 or 5 game winning streak make us realize that they're more motivated. Unfortunately sometimes it takes more than motivation. 

P.S. — With every diving catch Daniel Murphy makes at second base Terry Collins dies a little bit inside. 

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Just the Same Old Mets

Written by Brian Kalinka 20:20 PM, April 8th, 2011

The thing that bothered me the most this offseason was all the worries about or rotation, that without Johan Santana we would get clobbered unless the pitchers stepped up. That annoys me because even without Santana last season at times our rotation was superb, and overall our tema had one of the best ERA's in MLB. 

The issue last year was obviously our inability to drive in runs, and that's still the case. Until that gets fixed, we're not going to amount to much. 

Now I know it's early but lets just take a look at the Mets in 2010 and thus far in 2011.

 

I went on FanGraphs.com and switched to 2010 statistics, Men in Scoring under the 'Splits' tab.

2010 — .252 AVG w/ RISP – R21 in MLB. Strikeout % w/ RISP was 22% – 17th highest in MLB. SLG% w/ RISP was .381% – R22 in MLB. 

2011 — .273 AVG w/ RISP – R11 in MLB.  Strikeout % w/ RISP is 25.8% – R20 in MLB.  SLG% w/ RISP is .379% – R16 in MLB

 

So while we have had a better average with runners in scoring position, we have struck out more and have showed slightly less power at the plate. You can look at HRs, RBIs, AVG all you want but when you scale it down to important situations with men in scoring position, this lineup still struggles and until that changes the Mets will continue to play like a .500 team. Our pitching hasn't been pretty either, that is pretty obvious. However, when the lineup is absolutely unable to drive in runs or hit sacrifice flies with runners on second or on third base, it doesn't matter how good or bad your pitchers perform — you will finish with the short-end of the stick 90% of the time — unless of course you have four aces in your rotation. 

This team really hasn't changed much. Johan is hurt, Pelfrey squanders under pressure, R.A. Dickey is our most consistent pitcher, and the lineup is lewd, lascivious, salacious and outrageous! 

 

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How good of a bullpen did Alderson put together for this season?

Written by Zack Arenstein 12:12 PM, April 1st, 2011

On Tuesday, Joe Pawlikowski of FanGraphs wrote about how the Mets bullpen could actually be a strength this season. This would obviously be very welcome for the Mets this season for many reason. The success of the Mets bullpen would say a lot about a lot of different things in my opinion.

First and foremost, it would obviously speak to Sandy Alderson’s ability to put a strong team together under any circumstances. The Mets ability to spend money this past winter was hindered by a combination of past financial negligence on the part of both Omar Minaya and his team as well as the current state of the ownership. For those reasons, the Mets only spent approximately $10 million this off-season on new players. Five of the seven players starting the season in the bullpen for the Mets were not in the organization last season. For Alderson to put together a strong bullpen in this way would be a pretty impressive feat. For more on Alderson and one of the Mets new relievers Taylor Buchholz, click here

 

Second, what would it say about other teams like the Yankees and their habit of spending tons of money on their bullpens? Let me preface this by saying that Rafael Soriano and Pedro Feliciano, a guy who will always be admired by Mets fans, are both good relief pitchers. But the Yankees spent a combined $43 million on two relievers, guys that are pretty much their marquee pickups for the off-season after missing out on Cliff Lee. Was that really necessary? Is it necessary for any team to be spending that type of money on relievers who won’t even be closing for you? The Yankees have an excuse. They’re the Yankees and they spend tons of money (though I think even Brian Cashman didn’t like the Soriano signing, he didn’t want to give up the draft pick). But other teams giving out contracts longer than two years to a reliever really just isn’t necessary. 

I look forward to seeing how Alderson’s move work out for the Mets over the course of this season. The rotation has two more low risk, high reward players in the rotation in Chris Young and Chris Capuano. Even though I wish the Mets had money to spend on free agent acquisitions, I like to see the commitment to smart spending as well. Sometimes, signing big money free agents just isn’t what your team needs. 

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  • Journey to the Trade Deadline

    Post on: 10:10 AM, April 1st, 2011

    While many people are being cautiously optimistic about the Mets, as well as saying they expect the Mets to win more than the widely-predicted 74 wins, I can't help but feel that this may in some way be a Half a Season for the Mets. With the financial uncertainty looming and the Wilpons' inability to find a minority-owner so far, I have a bad feeling that July 20th through July 31st could be lo...

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  • VICTORY!!!!

    Post on: 11:11 AM, March 21st, 2011

      Port St. Lucie, FLA -- Three days after the New York Mets...

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  • The plan was always to get Johan 100% for 2012

    Post on: 9:09 AM, March 13th, 2011

    According to Steve Popper of the Bergen Record, Johan Santana's throwing hasn't been going well and could be shut down for the rest of the season. First off, obviously I want to see Johan on the field and healthy as soon as possible. When he's healthy, he's an utterly fantas...

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  • Report: Sandy Alderson to be next Mets GM

    Post on: 23:23 PM, October 26th, 2010

    According to Jon Heyman of SI.com, the Mets are on the verge of hiring Sandy Alderson as their next general manager. Heyman wrote on Twitter:   "...

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  • Mets GM Will Be Alderson or Byrnes

    Post on: 12:12 PM, October 23rd, 2010

    Jeff Wilpon sent an e-mail out to fans stating that the Mets will either hire Sandy Alderson or Josh Byrnes as their next GM. Here is the e-mail: “We are bringing back Josh Byrne...

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  • Alderson Wants To Be The GM

    Post on: 11:11 AM, October 14th, 2010

    According to Buster Olney, Sandy Alderson h...

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  • Source: “Alderson Is A Shoe-In”

    Post on: 11:11 AM, October 11th, 2010

    A source tell Mets Paradise that Sandy Alderson is a "shoe-in" for the Mets open GM position. They Mets have set-up an interview with him, but it looks to be just a formality. Even if Alderson bombs in the interview, which is unlikely, he'd most likely still be the favorite to land the position as Mets GM. ...

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  • The Mets need someone who won’t let the media make decisions for him

    Post on: 0:00 AM, October 9th, 2010

    The New York media is made up of some very pushy people. In the world of sports, they have way more say then they should. Organizations (the Mets in particular) let the pressure of the fans in addition to the media make their personnel decisions for them, whether they're right or wrong for the organization overall if they don't have regular success. This has led to some very bad moves for the Met...

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  • Terry Ryan Seems Doubtful

    Post on: 12:12 PM, October 8th, 2010

    As the Mets continue their GM search, it's becoming clearer who are the front runners, who the Mets don't want, and who doesn't want to be involved with the Mets. It looks as if Terry Ryan i...

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  • Mets Set-Up GM Interview’s For This Week

    Post on: 12:12 PM, October 8th, 2010

    Andy Martino reports that the Mets have set-up interviews with three potential General Manager candidates this week; Rick Hahn, Allard Baird, and Josh Byrnes....

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