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Is It Time for Jeremy Hefner?

Written by Mo Miller 14:14 PM, May 11th, 2012

Coming into the season, the Mets starting rotation was of question. One of the big questions, was Mike Pelfrey, who was pitching well, before going down to injury. Ever since then the Mets have been struggling to fill that fifth spot of the rotation. They tried Chris Schwinden for two starts, who pitched a total of eight innings going 0-1 with an 11.25 ERA. Since then the Mets used  40 year old Miguel Batista on Tuesday, who pitched 5 1/3 innings giving up eight hits and four runs in a Mets win. Mets manager Terry Collins has said that Batista will get at least one more start. With Chris Young at least a couple of weeks away before returning from injury, who is the pitcher to fill the fifth spot?

Meet Jeremy Hefner. Hefner was called for one game in late April, and pitched three innings in that game, pitching three innings, giving up three hits and a walk.  Hefner, who is currently at AAA Buffalo, has started six games and is 3-1 with a 1.77 ERA.  Hefner, 26, has pitched a total of 40 2/3 innings in those six starts, averaging about 6 2/3 innings per start. Furthermore, Hefner, has pitched a 0.910 WHIP, with 1.3 BB/9. While Hefner only has 5.1 K/9, Hefner throws strikes, doesn't walk people, and keeps the ball on the ground with a 39.5 GB% as well as a 3.00 GB/FB ratio.

So with Miguel Batista pitching mediocre, and Chris Young at least a couple of weeks away, why not give Jeremy Hefner a look?

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In Depth Analysis of the First Ten Games

Written by Mo Miller 17:17 PM, April 17th, 2012

So it's ten games into the season, and the Mets are 7-3, 0.5 games out of the division lead. Not many people, if any would have predicted this. The Mets have won every first game of the series so far. So, what are the Mets doing right to be successful? What can we expect to see for the rest of the 152 games of the season? As to a baseball game, there are two main keys, the pitching, and the offense.

Firstly, pitching well. Overall, the pitching staff, has pitched to a 2.43 ERA, second in the NL. Johan Santana has been great, while getting virtually no run support, R.A. Dickey has continued his success, Jon Niese has been nothing short of remarkable, Mike Pelfrey has shown signs of returning to his 2010 form, and Dillon Gee, pitched a gem last night in Atlanta. They have given up approximately 8.3 hits per nine innings, or, less than a hit per inning, while sustaining only 3.6 walks per nine innings, leading to a 1.32 WHIP. Of those 8.3 hits per nine innings mentioned above, only 0.4 of those are home runs.  Furthermore, the pitching staff has thrown strikes 62% of the time, hardly below the league average at 63%. The looking strike percentage is 29%, just above the league average of 28%. The swinging strike percentage is 29%, also just above the league average at 28%.  Those stats tell us what is necessary for pitchers to be successful. Not give up many hits, keep the ball in the ballpark, and keep runners off the bases, all the while getting only 3.8 runs of run support per game. If the pitching staff can sustain these numbers, the Mets should be successful.

Secondly, productive hitting. Starting at the top of the lineup, Ruben Tejada, has a league leading six doubles so far. In the ten games so far, Tejada, who took over as the leadoff hitter the second game of the season, has seen about 4.76 pitches per at bat, allowing the hitters behind him to analyze the pitcher. David Wright, is hitting a blistering .542. Josh Thole is hitting .375. The Mets as a team have a batting average of only .248(seventh in the league), but have .327 OBP (fifth in the league), a .404 slugging percentage (also fifth in the league), leading to a .731 OPS (obviously fifth in the league). So while the Mets aren't hitting all that often, when there not hitting, there getting on base by some other form, and when they are hitting they are tting extra base hits. Let me explain further, the Mets home run percentage, is 3%, 0.8% better than the league average at 2.2%. Their walk percentage is 10.4%, nearly two percentage points better than the league average at 8.6%. Their extra base hit percentage is 7.6% percent, a half point better than the league average at 7.1%. This is all the while Jason Bay, Lucas Duda, and Ike Davis are hitting a combined 18-104, or a combined .173. Josh Thole won't hit .375 for the season, and David Wright won't hit anything close to .542. But they should both hit over .300, and Duda, Davis, and Bay, will hit better than they have so far. So while some of this isn't sustainable, overall it could be, as long as the Mets continue working counts, and hitting the ball well.

(All stats courtesy of Baseball Reference and FanGraphs)

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Keys to the Mets 2012 Season

Written by Mo Miller 19:19 PM, April 3rd, 2012

Coming into the 2012 season, the NL East is the second best division in the Majors, behind only the AL East. The NL East contains four teams with a legit chance of making the playoffs this season, especially with the new playoff rules and now two wild cards. Those teams are the Braves, Phillies, Marlins, and Nationals. The fifth team in the division is the Mets, who have have to play a combined 72 games against those four teams, or 44% of their games all season. Expectations are low this season for the Mets. Sports Illustrated projects the Mets to go 72-90 (that's not to say they will win all the games against their division rivals and lose the rest). So what needs to go right for the Mets to exceed expectations and flirt with .500? I would split it up into two factors: bounce back, and continuation.

Bounce Back- In 2011 the Mets had a few players who had a disappointing season. Jason Bay continued his woes since signing with the Mets. David Wright played only 102 games due to injury, and had only 14 HRs and 61 RBIs while hitting for .254 average. Johan Santana missed all of the 2011 season following surgery for shoulder tear in 2010.  For the Mets to successful, they need these three players, to bounce back and play like they have in the past.

Entering Sunday, Jason Bay is 8-38 with no RBIs in spring training. The Mets need Bay to turn that around, and not be an automatic out. Wright has been hurt much of the spring, out with an abdominal tear. Wright played in his first spring game last week and has looked good. Wright needs to return to has 2010 form when he hit .283 with 29 HRs and 103 RBIs. Santana, has started five games this spring, and while not being dominant, has looked good, and is ready to return to form. The Mets need Santana to do exactly that, to be an ace, to be the starting pitcher who can stop a bad losing streak, and give the Mets a chance to win the game every time he goes out there.

Continuation- The Mets had a few bright spots in 2011. Ike Davis was hitting well in 2011, but played only 36 games before going down to an ankle injury. Lucas Duda showed impressive power, but played in only 100 games. Daniel Murphy continued to hit in 2011 but played only 109 games before going down to an MCL injury. The Mets these need three young players to continue their offensive prowess.

As mentioned above Davis played only in 36 games in 2011 before going down to injury. Davis hit .302 with seven HRs and 25 RBIs before going down to injury. In 2010, his rookie season, Davis hit .264 with 19 HRs and 71 RBis and 147 games. Expect Davis to have a year with 20+ HRs and 100+ RBIs, Duda did not start 2011 with the Mets, but was called up shortly after. It took a while for Duda to start hitting, but once he started hitting he was rather impressive. Overall, Duda hit .292 with 10 HRs and 50 RBIs with 21 doubles. A full season with Duda on his game could be scary. Murphy was hitting well, and hitting for average before going down to an injury. Murphy was hitting .320 with only 6 HRs and 49 RBIs. If Murphy can stay healthy(which he was had trouble with the past two years), he will a force to reckon with in 2012.

If these six players can play like they used to play, the Mets should be fun to watch.

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PreGame: Mets @ Braves ~ 09/18, 1:35 PM EDT

Written by Drucifer 13:13 PM, September 18th, 2011

Mets Game #153, Road #78

New York Mets

NL East – 3rd Place – (72-80)

Road (41-36) – Last Ten (2-8)

Turner Field

@

Turner Field

Atlanta Braves

NL East – 2nd Place – (87-65)

Home (47-30) – Last Ten (5-5)

Turner Field

 

  Sunday, 18th September, 1:35 PM EDT  

 

 

Pitching Match-Up

 

 

 

 

Mets Lineup

 

# Pos B Player G AB AVG H HR R RBI SB
1 SS R Ruben Tejada 87 293 .276 81 0 25 28 3
2 CF L Jason Pridie 92 182 .225 41 4 24 20 6
3 3B R David Wright 92 352 .264 93 14 57 57 12
4 RF L Lucas Duda 97 294 .289 85 9 37 48 1
5 LF R Jason Bay 120 440 .245 108 12 57 57 11
6 1B R Nick Evans 49 134 .261 35 4 20 21 0
7 C L Josh Thole 106 312 .266 83 3 21 36 0
8 2B R Justin Turner 109 416 .267 111 4 46 49 7
9 :RH R Dillon Gee 28 44 .114 5 0 2 3 0

 

Braves Lineup

 

# Pos B Player G AB AVG H HR R RBI SB
1 CF L Michael Bourn 148 613 .299 183 2 88 47 55
2 1B R Martin Prado 119 506 .263 133 12 63 54 4
3 3B S Chipper Jones 116 419 .284 119 17 53 66 2
4 2B R Dan Uggla 151 560 .232 130 34 84 76 1
5 C L Brian McCann 119 434 .276 120 24 51 69 3
6 LF R Matt Diaz 112 239 .264 63 0 15 20 4
7 SS R Alex Gonzalez 144 549 .237 130 13 55 53 2
8 RF L Jason Heyward 118 369 .220 81 13 46 41 8
9 RH R Brandon Beachy 23 40 .075 3 0 0 1 0

 

 

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PreGame: Mets @ Braves ~ 09/17, 4:10 PM EDT

Written by Drucifer 14:14 PM, September 17th, 2011

Mets Game #152, Road #77

New York Mets

NL East – 3rd Place – (72-79)

Road (41-35) – Last Ten (2-8)

Turner Field

@

Turner Field

Atlanta Braves

NL East – 2nd Place – (86-65)

Home (46-30) – Last Ten (4-6)

Turner Field

 

  Saturday, 17th September, 4:10 PM EDT  

 

 

Pitching Match-Up

 

 

 

 

Mets Lineup

 

# Pos B Player G AB AVG H HR R RBI SB
1 SS S Jose Reyes 116 503 .334 168 5 93 39 36
2 CF S Angel Pagan 119 463 .263 122 7 66 55 31
3 3B R David Wright 91 348 .267 93 14 57 57 12
4 RF L Lucas Duda 96 290 .290 84 9 37 48 1
5 LF R Jason Bay 119 436 .248 108 12 57 57 11
6 1B R Nick Evans 48 131 .267 35 4 20 21 0
7 C L Josh Thole 105 310 .265 82 3 21 36 0
8 2B R Ruben Tejada 86 290 .272 79 0 25 28 3
9 :RH R R.A. Dickey 31 54 .148 8 0 0 2 0

 

Braves Lineup

 

# Pos B Player G AB AVG H HR R RBI SB
1 CF L Michael Bourn 147 609 .300 183 2 88 47 55
2 LF R Martin Prado 118 503 .262 132 12 63 54 4
3 3B S Chipper Jones 115 415 .282 117 17 53 66 2
4 2B R Dan Uggla 150 557 .233 130 34 84 76 1
5 C L Brian McCann 118 431 .278 120 24 51 69 3
6 1B L Freddie Freeman 146 532 .289 154 19 65 72 4
7 SS R Alex Gonzalez 142 542 .238 129 13 55 53 2
8 RF L Jason Heyward 117 367 .221 81 13 45 41 8
9 RH R Tim Hudson 30 62 .129 8 1 4 4 0

 

 

Team Rankings

 

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BRAVES
 

 

 

Team Leaders

 

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