The Mets seem to be in a bit of an awkward situation at this point in the season. They're currently 14-18 in the standings, good for last place in the NL East, a game back of the Washington Nationals. They've had some injuries here and there, but nothing absolutely unbearable like we've seen in the past. The general diagnosis at this point is that the Mets have talent, but they haven't gotten the consistent starting pitching they need in order to be successful. As a result, rumors have begun to fly about almost every major part of the major league roster. That includes Carlos Beltran, Francisco Rodriguez, Johan Santana, and even David Wright and, of course, Jose Reyes. The latter two guys seem to hold the most value on the market, and for good reason. I find it hard to believe David Wright will be traded, mostly because the status of his contract. The Mets hold control over him for another 2 seasons, so there is still a good chance to build a good team around him while he's still under his current contract. The story is different for Jose Reyes.
Reyes is going to be a free agent at season's end barring an unlikely extension. The question for Reyes is, will the season expire with him manning shortstop for the Mets, or another major league club? Many people believe there will come a point where the Mets will have no choice but to trade him. With the way the new front office operates, most people don't think Reyes will get an offer from the Mets similar to the long term contract he may draw on the open market, ballooning to a value as high as the one Carl Crawford received from the Boston Red Sox, and that's a fair point. But consider this. At this juncture in the 2011 season, according to FanGraphs, Reyes has been the 7th most valuable player in all of baseball, 1st among shortstops (a list including Mets-slayer Troy Tulowitzki) by a fairly large margin considering we're only about 5 weeks into the season. He has been absolutely unreal to be quite honest. He's on pace to hit about 15 triples in addition to over 50 doubles. In case you were wondering, both those totals would have led the major leagues in 2010. The triples total would've also led in 2009. Not in 2008 however, since Jose Reyes himself hit 19 that year. The long and short of it is this. Jose Reyes is really freaking good.
Quite frankly, with all due respect to Ike Davis, Jose Reyes has been the bright spot on the Mets roster so far this season. When healthy, his combination of tangible production and overall excitement is something no other baseball player on the planet earth can match. And no, I don't think I'm exaggerating. Back in 2006, when he was healthy, hitting his stride as a baseball player, and the Mets as a team were having their most successful season of the decade while coming inches away from the franchise's 5th pennant, Reyes was widely considered the most exciting player in all of baseball. While he isn't playing for that same team, right now, he's playing like that same Jose Reyes. He may not put up the same totals for various reasons (team is more conservative about stealing bases/team behind him isn't as good so he won't score the same amount of runs or get the same number of plate appearances) but the player we're watching now is every bit as good as that player from 2006. Why on earth would any team be stupid enough to trade a guy like this way? He's a completely unique player who can never be replaced. Not really.
No player is without their question marks going forward, Jose Reyes is included. It's one of the reasons guys like Mets GM Sandy Alderson would want to refrain from doling out long term contracts in general, not just to players like Reyes. And when I say players like Reyes, I mean players with a history of injury problems and a guy who relies heavily on his speed to produce as a major league baseball player, and I think both concerns are fair. Let's start with the injury history. At least for now, Reyes is healthy. We don't know if the injuries will crop up again, but I will say this. I think that his injuries have been grossly mishandled in the past by people like Omar Minaya. In 2009 when Reyes missed 126 games, he should've immediately been placed on the disabled list when the injury first cropped up. However, he was kept around for several weeks while the Mets hoped he'd be able to get better and stay off the DL. The Mets current regime has shown very emphatically that when a player on their roster shows the smallest signs of injury that they will be placed on the DL immediately in order to reduce the risk of any further injury. I think this philosophy will work wonders for Reyes going forward should he remain with the franchise. And as far as him aging badly goes, does anyone really think he'd be absolutely nothing without his speed? Is he not a smart baseball player with a fantastic attitude? He makes good contact at the plate and he's learning to be more patient and draw walks. He'd also still be an above average major league shortstop. In no way am I saying he's going to be the same player at 35 as he will be at 28 or 29, but he'll still be a good major leaguer. And even paying him an average of $18+ million a season during a contract, he'd still offer a surplus in value in the early years of the contract that could make up for his decreasing value later ala Carlos Beltran (though so far this season Beltran's been very good).
The real question for Sandy Alderson is this. Is it worth giving Jose Reyes the long term contract? Like I said before, Reyes could warrant a contract as large as the one Carl Crawford received from the Red Sox, a 7-year, $126 million contract. Now whether or not the Wilpons could actually sign Reyes to this contract could put a damper on this whole discussion. I believe they'll be able to due to the large sum of money coming off the books this winter in addition to the new minority ownership coming into play shortly. So assuming Alderson has the means to do so, would he pull the trigger? The Mets GM is not one to make gut decisions on such things. He's going to go to the data he has and make a decision based on that. He'll talk to all of his scouts, consult all of his statisticians and doctors at his disposal and make an educated decision. When it comes down to it, the question Alderson will answer is this, just like he probably does with every other player he decides to sign or not. Will Reyes add more value to the team over the course of that contract than what the Mets are going to be paying him in dollars and cents? If that answer is yes, the Mets will hang on to him. We've heard Alderson say in the past he knows the fans love homegrown talent and it is a factor he considers. Why would he not try to keep one of the best around at his position if he's worth it and homegrown? Spoiler alert: he WOULD keep him.
I have no doubt that if the time comes and Jose Reyes is forced to put on an Angels, Reds, or Giants uniform, it's going to be a bleak day in Mets history. I just hope it never does.
*In our first installment of the Future Impact series: How does R.A. Dickey factor into the future of the Mets?*