Mets Paradise http://www.metsparadise.com New York Mets Blog & Forum Fri, 18 May 2012 03:31:36 +0000 en hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3.1 AlWright! Hail King David! http://www.metsparadise.com/2012/05/17/alwright-hail-king-david/ http://www.metsparadise.com/2012/05/17/alwright-hail-king-david/#comments Fri, 18 May 2012 03:25:08 +0000 Mo Miller http://www.metsparadise.com/?p=9818 2006, David Wright, one of the best third basemen in the MLB, and one the best players in the MLB. 2007, more of the same. 2008, even more of the same. For those three years, Wright hit for a combined .312 average, 89 HRs, and 347 RBIs. Averaging it out, Wright played 158 games per season, .312 average, 30 home runs, and 116 RBIs. Came 2009 and with it Citi Field, and Wright's numbers dipped. 2009, 2010, 2011 were years to forget for Wright. Wright averaged 134 games played, with a .284 average, with 18 HRs and 79 RBIs per season. Wright was not just off at the plate, but also off in the field, his throws were off line, and he lost his cat like quickness that won him Gold Gloves in 2007 and 2008. Enter 2012, Wright has been nothing short of sensational both at bat and in the field.

38 games into the 2012 season and Wright's Mets are exceeding expectations with a 21-17, and it's mainly thanks to the unofficial captain, Wright. who has sat only three games all season due to a fractured pinky. After Thursday's 9-4 Mets win, Wright is now hitting .411/.513/.621 with four home runs and 22 RBIs.  Wright's .411 average, and .513 OBP lead the major leagues. So what's going (W)right this season for Wright?

First and foremost, strikeouts are down. The last three seasons Wright, averaged a strikeout once every 3.8 at bats, with a 2.04 strikeout to walk ratio. Going into Thursday, Wright has struckout once for every 5.8 at bats with a 0.88 strikeout to walk ratio. In 2006-2008, Wright averaged 5.8 at bats between strikeouts, with a 1.36 strikeout to walk ratio. Wright is seeing the ball better, and on target. The past few years Wright was late on fastballs and couldn't reach the fastballs on the outside corner. So far in 2012, as the numbers indicate Wright has been less prone to the strikeout, leading to more hits. The most telling number of such, Wright's balls in play percentage. From 2006-2008 Wright hit the ball in play 68% of the time, from 2009-2011, Wright hit the ball in play 62% of the time. This season? 67% of the time.

Secondly, how he's hitting the ball. When Wright's been hitting the ball, he's been hitting it well. So far in 2012, Wright has hit an Extra Base Hit 10.2% of the time, right around at his 2006-2008 average of 10.5% of the time. Wright has hit line drives for 25% of all balls put into play. That percentage tells us Wright has kept an even swing. In recent years, it had looked like Wright's swing had evolved into a little of an upper cut, especially since the creation of (the formerly cavernous) Citi Field. The fact that Wright has hit line drives for one quarter of all balls in play, tells us if Wright had more of an upper cut in his swing, he has since leveled it, and is no longer trying to hit 500 foot bombs, but rather just get good wood on the ball.

Last but not least, leadership. It won't show up in any boxscore, but ask any player on the Mets, any coach on the Mets, or any fan of the Mets, and they will tell you Wright is the leader of the Mets, their unofficial "captain". Monday night, following D.J. Carrassco's beaning of Ryan Braun, when the Mets came up to bat, Terry Collins quickly removed Wright from the lineup, not wanting his star player to get hurt. Wright was upset at his manager, being that he wanted to be the guy to take the hit for the team. This is finally Wright's team. Carlos Delgado gone. Carlos Beltran gone. Jose Reyes gone. Wright goes out on the field knowing that it's his team now, and he has to set an example for all the young players on the team. He goes out everyday and plays his heart out, even playing with a broken finger! In recent years there was worry that the burden of the Mets was getting to Wright, and that's why he was struggling. Wright has come out in 2012 and is trying to prove all his critics wrong, even team owner Fred Wilpon, who this week retracted from his statement last year, (calling Wright "not a superstar"),  and is ready to be the leader of the Mets in all aspects.

I think we are far enough in the season where it's no longer considered "small sample size". Watch out for David Wright.

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Is It Time for Jeremy Hefner? http://www.metsparadise.com/2012/05/11/is-it-time-for-jeremy-hefner/ http://www.metsparadise.com/2012/05/11/is-it-time-for-jeremy-hefner/#comments Fri, 11 May 2012 18:21:51 +0000 Mo Miller http://www.metsparadise.com/?p=9812 Coming into the season, the Mets starting rotation was of question. One of the big questions, was Mike Pelfrey, who was pitching well, before going down to injury. Ever since then the Mets have been struggling to fill that fifth spot of the rotation. They tried Chris Schwinden for two starts, who pitched a total of eight innings going 0-1 with an 11.25 ERA. Since then the Mets used  40 year old Miguel Batista on Tuesday, who pitched 5 1/3 innings giving up eight hits and four runs in a Mets win. Mets manager Terry Collins has said that Batista will get at least one more start. With Chris Young at least a couple of weeks away before returning from injury, who is the pitcher to fill the fifth spot?

Meet Jeremy Hefner. Hefner was called for one game in late April, and pitched three innings in that game, pitching three innings, giving up three hits and a walk.  Hefner, who is currently at AAA Buffalo, has started six games and is 3-1 with a 1.77 ERA.  Hefner, 26, has pitched a total of 40 2/3 innings in those six starts, averaging about 6 2/3 innings per start. Furthermore, Hefner, has pitched a 0.910 WHIP, with 1.3 BB/9. While Hefner only has 5.1 K/9, Hefner throws strikes, doesn't walk people, and keeps the ball on the ground with a 39.5 GB% as well as a 3.00 GB/FB ratio.

So with Miguel Batista pitching mediocre, and Chris Young at least a couple of weeks away, why not give Jeremy Hefner a look?

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In Depth Analysis of the First Ten Games http://www.metsparadise.com/2012/04/17/in-depth-analysis-of-the-first-ten-games/ http://www.metsparadise.com/2012/04/17/in-depth-analysis-of-the-first-ten-games/#comments Tue, 17 Apr 2012 21:40:08 +0000 Mo Miller http://www.metsparadise.com/?p=9796 So it's ten games into the season, and the Mets are 7-3, 0.5 games out of the division lead. Not many people, if any would have predicted this. The Mets have won every first game of the series so far. So, what are the Mets doing right to be successful? What can we expect to see for the rest of the 152 games of the season? As to a baseball game, there are two main keys, the pitching, and the offense.

Firstly, pitching well. Overall, the pitching staff, has pitched to a 2.43 ERA, second in the NL. Johan Santana has been great, while getting virtually no run support, R.A. Dickey has continued his success, Jon Niese has been nothing short of remarkable, Mike Pelfrey has shown signs of returning to his 2010 form, and Dillon Gee, pitched a gem last night in Atlanta. They have given up approximately 8.3 hits per nine innings, or, less than a hit per inning, while sustaining only 3.6 walks per nine innings, leading to a 1.32 WHIP. Of those 8.3 hits per nine innings mentioned above, only 0.4 of those are home runs.  Furthermore, the pitching staff has thrown strikes 62% of the time, hardly below the league average at 63%. The looking strike percentage is 29%, just above the league average of 28%. The swinging strike percentage is 29%, also just above the league average at 28%.  Those stats tell us what is necessary for pitchers to be successful. Not give up many hits, keep the ball in the ballpark, and keep runners off the bases, all the while getting only 3.8 runs of run support per game. If the pitching staff can sustain these numbers, the Mets should be successful.

Secondly, productive hitting. Starting at the top of the lineup, Ruben Tejada, has a league leading six doubles so far. In the ten games so far, Tejada, who took over as the leadoff hitter the second game of the season, has seen about 4.76 pitches per at bat, allowing the hitters behind him to analyze the pitcher. David Wright, is hitting a blistering .542. Josh Thole is hitting .375. The Mets as a team have a batting average of only .248(seventh in the league), but have .327 OBP (fifth in the league), a .404 slugging percentage (also fifth in the league), leading to a .731 OPS (obviously fifth in the league). So while the Mets aren't hitting all that often, when there not hitting, there getting on base by some other form, and when they are hitting they are tting extra base hits. Let me explain further, the Mets home run percentage, is 3%, 0.8% better than the league average at 2.2%. Their walk percentage is 10.4%, nearly two percentage points better than the league average at 8.6%. Their extra base hit percentage is 7.6% percent, a half point better than the league average at 7.1%. This is all the while Jason Bay, Lucas Duda, and Ike Davis are hitting a combined 18-104, or a combined .173. Josh Thole won't hit .375 for the season, and David Wright won't hit anything close to .542. But they should both hit over .300, and Duda, Davis, and Bay, will hit better than they have so far. So while some of this isn't sustainable, overall it could be, as long as the Mets continue working counts, and hitting the ball well.

(All stats courtesy of Baseball Reference and FanGraphs)

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Don’t wanna rain on your parade…so I won’t… http://www.metsparadise.com/2012/04/14/dont-wanna-rain-on-your-parade-so-i-wont/ http://www.metsparadise.com/2012/04/14/dont-wanna-rain-on-your-parade-so-i-wont/#comments Sun, 15 Apr 2012 02:06:23 +0000 Zack Arenstein http://www.metsparadise.com/?p=9793 The Mets are 8 games into a 162 game season. Just under 5% of the games have been played. There's a looonnnggg way to go. David Wright's not going to continue to bat .588 with a 1.577 OPS. Frank Francisco is going to have a bad outing sooner or later. So will RA Dickey. But you know what? I don't give a !@#$%.

This team is incredibly fun to watch. They employ an amazing amount of youth each and every day. Every player they throw out there on a daily basis not named Jason Bay has a chance to be apart of this club 5 years from now (that's actually pretty amazing when you think about it). And I don't believe they've even played their best baseball yet. The Mets have gotten very, very little from their 4, 5, and 6 hitters thus far outside of a few select occasions. I have confidence Ike will figure things out soon and become yet another young asset. Same for Duda, who put together a nice day on Saturday.

I'm not sure I really believed any of this was for real until Saturday's win. When David Wright stepped up to the plate and knocked the first pitch he saw 400+ feet to left center field and out of the park, putting an end to any doubt anyone had about the health of his pinky finger, I started to believe. That's a turning point kind of moment for a team. I can only imagine what must've been going through the minds of the other Mets players as they watched that at bat unfold. To see Wright not only play through the pain, but succeed in such a fantastic way, it really says a lot. It set a tone for the rest of the game. Niese was stellar for 6.2 innings. Duda smoked a home run to extend the lead. Murphy, Tejada, Ike, and Nieuwenhius in addition to David Wright all made great plays in the field. And the Phillies never really stood a chance. 

I don't care if it's only 8 games into the season. You can keep saying that if you want. But this team is fun to watch. They've got incredible veteran leadership with guys like Wright, Johan Santana, and RA Dickey. They've got lots of great, young, homegrown talent all over the place contributing to the club in meaningful ways. And to top it off, they look like they're having a blast in the process. I don't know if the Mets are going to be able to maintain this level of play for the entire year, but I do know that I'm certainly going to enjoy this run as long as it lasts.

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Keys to the Mets 2012 Season http://www.metsparadise.com/2012/04/03/keys-to-the-mets-2012-season/ http://www.metsparadise.com/2012/04/03/keys-to-the-mets-2012-season/#comments Tue, 03 Apr 2012 23:54:15 +0000 Mo Miller http://www.metsparadise.com/?p=9775 Coming into the 2012 season, the NL East is the second best division in the Majors, behind only the AL East. The NL East contains four teams with a legit chance of making the playoffs this season, especially with the new playoff rules and now two wild cards. Those teams are the Braves, Phillies, Marlins, and Nationals. The fifth team in the division is the Mets, who have have to play a combined 72 games against those four teams, or 44% of their games all season. Expectations are low this season for the Mets. Sports Illustrated projects the Mets to go 72-90 (that's not to say they will win all the games against their division rivals and lose the rest). So what needs to go right for the Mets to exceed expectations and flirt with .500? I would split it up into two factors: bounce back, and continuation.

Bounce Back- In 2011 the Mets had a few players who had a disappointing season. Jason Bay continued his woes since signing with the Mets. David Wright played only 102 games due to injury, and had only 14 HRs and 61 RBIs while hitting for .254 average. Johan Santana missed all of the 2011 season following surgery for shoulder tear in 2010.  For the Mets to successful, they need these three players, to bounce back and play like they have in the past.

Entering Sunday, Jason Bay is 8-38 with no RBIs in spring training. The Mets need Bay to turn that around, and not be an automatic out. Wright has been hurt much of the spring, out with an abdominal tear. Wright played in his first spring game last week and has looked good. Wright needs to return to has 2010 form when he hit .283 with 29 HRs and 103 RBIs. Santana, has started five games this spring, and while not being dominant, has looked good, and is ready to return to form. The Mets need Santana to do exactly that, to be an ace, to be the starting pitcher who can stop a bad losing streak, and give the Mets a chance to win the game every time he goes out there.

Continuation- The Mets had a few bright spots in 2011. Ike Davis was hitting well in 2011, but played only 36 games before going down to an ankle injury. Lucas Duda showed impressive power, but played in only 100 games. Daniel Murphy continued to hit in 2011 but played only 109 games before going down to an MCL injury. The Mets these need three young players to continue their offensive prowess.

As mentioned above Davis played only in 36 games in 2011 before going down to injury. Davis hit .302 with seven HRs and 25 RBIs before going down to injury. In 2010, his rookie season, Davis hit .264 with 19 HRs and 71 RBis and 147 games. Expect Davis to have a year with 20+ HRs and 100+ RBIs, Duda did not start 2011 with the Mets, but was called up shortly after. It took a while for Duda to start hitting, but once he started hitting he was rather impressive. Overall, Duda hit .292 with 10 HRs and 50 RBIs with 21 doubles. A full season with Duda on his game could be scary. Murphy was hitting well, and hitting for average before going down to an injury. Murphy was hitting .320 with only 6 HRs and 49 RBIs. If Murphy can stay healthy(which he was had trouble with the past two years), he will a force to reckon with in 2012.

If these six players can play like they used to play, the Mets should be fun to watch.

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Questions entering the 2012 Season http://www.metsparadise.com/2012/02/18/questions-entering-the-2012-season/ http://www.metsparadise.com/2012/02/18/questions-entering-the-2012-season/#comments Sun, 19 Feb 2012 02:05:17 +0000 Mo Miller http://www.metsparadise.com/?p=9765 Entering the 2012 season, it's been six years since the Mets have been in the playoffs. The last three years have been dreadful, seasons to forget. Coming into the 2012 season, things look bleak, like the Mets are rebuilding waiting for their prospects to grow and become Major League ready. However, if things go right the Mets could be a competitive team, and surprise many people. That being said, that's many things. Here are some of the story lines coming into the 2012 season.

Johan Santana- Since joining the Mets Santana has had trouble staying healthy. Can Johan stay healthy? Can Johan return to Cy Young form? How much will fatigue factor into Santana's pitching considering he hasn't pitched in a Major League game in close to a year and a half?

Jason Bay-Two years into the Jason Bay contract, so far it hasn't looked good for the Mets nor for Bay. In Bay's two years as a Met, Bay has combined for a .251 average, with 18 HR's and 108 RBIs. Combined. In two seasons. So what will 2102 hold for Jason Bay? With the outfield walls coming in and coming down, will Bay's offensive numbers improve? Will Bay return to the offensive threat he was in Boston?

Mike Pelfrey- After a good 2010, Pelfrey was awful in 2011, going 7-13 with a 4.74 ERA. Will Pelfrey return to 2010 form and lower his large ERA? Pelfrey gave up 21 home runs in 2011, can Pelfrey re-find that sinker that was so good in 2010, and keep the ball down?

David Wright- Wright is coming off an off-year where he had a back injury and only played 102 games. Wright's contract has a club option for $16 million if picked up for 2013. Were Wright's offensive problems because of his back issue alone? Will Wright get traded at the trade deadline if the Mets are not in contention? What type of offensive threat will Wright be? Will he show his opposite field power again and return to old form?

Josh Thole- Mets GM Sandy Alderson & Co. decided not to after a veteran catcher and go with the Mets young catchers Josh Thole and Mike Nickeas. Thole's defense was lacking last year, and at times he looked lost behind the plate, and had a league leading 16 passed balls. Can Thole improve on his defense and be competent behind the plate? Thole, who was expected to be a good average hitter, hit a woeful .268 in 2011. Can Thole improve on his offense and raise his average and hit close to .300?

Jonathon Niese- Niese has had trouble his whole career staying healthy. Can he stay healthy for a full season in 2012? At times in 2011 Niese looked like an All-Star with an amazing curveball. Can Niese return to that form and be consistent with it?

Ruben Tejada-  The Mets let Jose Reyes walk, handing the shortstop reigns to 22 year old Tejada. It is clear Tejada can play shortstop at a Major League level, but can he play it over a long 162 games? Tejada's offense was very up and down in 2011, at times looking like he could hit in the Majors, and at time not being able to get the ball out of the infield? Which is the real Tejada? Can he hit well consistently over the span of the long season?

Daniel Murphy- The past two seasons, Murphy has had trouble staying healthy, getting both knees blown out the past two years. One thing for sure is Murphy can hit, hitting .320 in 109 games last season. The Mets are ready to give Murphy second base full fledged, but can he defend it properly? Can he turn the double play, something he had trouble doing in 2011?

Bullpen- Yet again, the Mets had problems in the bullpen. Alderson & Co. made the bullpen a priority over the off-season, signing Frank Fransisco, Jon Rauch, and trading for Ramon Ramirez. Can the bullpen finally be stable? Can they close out games and hold leads for the Mets? Can they keep games close and give the Mets an opportunity to comeback?

These are just some of the questions that need to be answered yes for the Mets to be successful in 2012.

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Why would the Mets want to trade Niese? http://www.metsparadise.com/2011/12/17/why-would-the-mets-want-to-trade-niese/ http://www.metsparadise.com/2011/12/17/why-would-the-mets-want-to-trade-niese/#comments Sat, 17 Dec 2011 16:58:15 +0000 Zack Arenstein http://www.metsparadise.com/?p=9762 Michael Baron over at Metsblog had a good take on why the Mets would want to trade Jon Niese. While Michael makes some great points, to me, the fact that they're looking to trade him right now is actually a testament to how valuable he actually is. For the same reason the Oakland A's are shopping Gio Gonzalez, Sandy Alderson thought it was a good opportunity to listen to offers for Niese. This action is completely dictated by the current state of the market for starting pitching. There is a ton of demand (as there always will be), but there's little supply. A young, cost-controlled, improving, left-handed starting pitcher holds heightened value right now because there aren't many available, quality starting pitchers in trade or free agency. 

One thing that should always be kept in mind is the fact that the current team of executives running the Mets baseball operations is very savy, and they would never make a trade they didn't whole-heartedly believe was in the best interest of the franchise long term. With that in mind, I can say with certainty that Niese will not be dealt unless it's for a package of assets that makes the team better off long term. The Mets obviously feel that they could get incredible value for Niese if they deal him now. And I'd have no problem with trading Niese in a deal like that.

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Say Goodbye To Jose http://www.metsparadise.com/2011/11/09/say-goodbye-to-jose/ http://www.metsparadise.com/2011/11/09/say-goodbye-to-jose/#comments Wed, 09 Nov 2011 23:28:29 +0000 Mo Miller http://www.metsparadise.com/?p=9758 Over the season, I was heartbroken as I was watching Jose Reyes knock the cover off the ball knowing that it could very well be next season when he will no longer be wearing a Mets uniform. As the weeks and months passed, I managed to convince myself Reyes was going nowhere, and he and the Mets will find someway to keep him in a Mets uniform. As the season ended, reality kicked in, Reyes isn't going to stay because the Mets can't afford it. In the days since the World Series ended, I realized it's better that way. 

Reason #1 Don't fall behind: Hypothetically speaking, let's say the Mets sign Reyes to a five year, $85 million contract. That adds $17 million to the annual payroll for the next five years. 17 million less to spend on potential free agents, 17 million less to spend on the farm system, 17 million less to spend on organization growth, 17 million less to spend scouts, 17 million more to fall behind the other four teams in their division, 15 in their league, and 29 in baseball – per year – for the next five years.  

Reason #2 Legs don't last forever: Reyes's game is based around his legs. Run out an infield single, make a double into a triple, steal bases. Reyes is 28 years old. For now on the good side of 30. For now. In three years he will be on the bad side of 30. Let's return to that five year contract, in years three, four, and five, Reyes won't be the same player he is in years one and two. As years go on stolen bases will lower. Reyes won't be the same player he is, he will no longer be worth that $17 million. In football, teams are skeptical to give a running back a big contract when he is in his upper 20's, should not the same apply to Reyes?

Reason #3 Injury history: I need not go through Reyes's extensive injury history, we all know it too well, some more than others. Reyes has gotten injured many times throughout his career, and is a gamble. His hamstrings, his quads, his oblique. Going back to our original contract, would you be willing to take a $17 million gamble for every year for the next five years? 

I know Reyes livens the fanbase, excites the fans and the team, but is a $17 million underachiever, injured player worth it?

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Quick Hits ~ 10.19.2011 http://www.metsparadise.com/2011/10/19/quick-hits-10-19-2011/ http://www.metsparadise.com/2011/10/19/quick-hits-10-19-2011/#comments Wed, 19 Oct 2011 15:56:33 +0000 Brandon Lee http://www.metsparadise.com/?p=9754 Here is some quick news concerning the Mets in the recent days:

  • Hanley Ramirez has told the Florida Marlins that he is willing to switch his position if the Marlins go out and sign free agent Jose Reyes.
  • Doc Gooden says that he missed to 1986 Mets World Series Parade because he was "too high" to attend.
  • Right now, the top teams in play for Jose Reyes are the San Francisco Giants, the Philadelphia Phillies, and the New York Mets. Sandy Alderson wants to bring Reyes back, he is scared of locking up the 2011 NL Batting Champion for too many years; especially with his injuries in the 2011 season. The Phillies could just be in the race to bump up the amount of the money the Mets have to shell out for the All-Star shortstop.
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Mike Piazza: Future Mets Coach? http://www.metsparadise.com/2011/10/15/mike-piazza-future-mets-coach/ http://www.metsparadise.com/2011/10/15/mike-piazza-future-mets-coach/#comments Sat, 15 Oct 2011 17:25:47 +0000 Brandon Lee http://www.metsparadise.com/?p=9752 The Mets are now going through the hiring process of new coaches for the 2012 season. The newest addition is bench coach Bob Geren, former manager of the Oakland A's. Now the Mets are searching for their new first base coach to replace Mookie Wilson.

A couple of weeks ago the Chicago White Sox hired Robin Ventura to be their manager. Ventura played for the Mets from 1999 to 2001 and forever immortalized himself in Mets history with his Grand-Slam Single against the Atlanta Braves in game five of the 1999 NLCS. He also hired another ex-Met, Joe McEwing as his bench coach.

So all these ex-Mets getting hired to be coaches got me thinking: when are we going to see Mike Piazza coaching for the Mets? Personally I think it's only a matter of time before old number 31 wears a Met uniform again. After retiring in 2008, the future Hall of Famer he served as the hitting coach for the 2009 Italian World Baseball Classic team and managed the USA team in the Futures Game in 2011.

Piazza has shown interest in returning the game as coach immediately after his retirement. I think Piazza will wait until his induction into the Hall of Fame to accept a coaches position in the MLB.

In a couple of seasons when Terry Collins' tenure with the Mets is up, I could see Piazza as a hitting coach or a bench coach for the next manager. Or maybe he'll be the manager.

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