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The Mechanics of Moving the QO


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31 replies to this topic

#31 yogib8

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Posted 13 December 2016 - 02:18 PM

Minuses;

Fielder 23.8 M

Teixeria 22.5 M

Ortiz 16.0 M

A Rodriquez 21.0 M

Holliday 4.0 M

RA Dickey 4.5

B Anderson 15.8 M

J Abreu .5 M

C Rasmus 15.8 M

M Wieters 15.8 M

J Weaver 17.0 M

CJ Wilson 15.5 M

J Peavy 12.0 M

A Hill 11.7 M

J De La Rosa 12.5 M

C Crisp 11.0 M

 

Pluses;

Beltran 1.0 M

Fowler 3.5 M

Cespedes 2.5 M

Chapman 3.9 M

Melancon 15.5 M

Jansen 4.3 M

Walker 17.2 M

Colon 12.5 M

Volquez 1.0 M

R Hill 16.0 M

Desmond 14.0 M

Reddick 13.0 M

Morales 11.0 M

Gomez 11.5 M

Cashner 10.0 M

Turner 16.0 M

Encarnacion 20. M

Trumbo 12.5

Bautista 5.5 M

M Machado 11.5 M

Z Britton 11.4 M

C Bucholtz .5M

T Frazier 12 M

J Bruce .5 M

N Arenado 14.8 M 

W Myers 13.9 M

J Garcia .5 M

G Gonzales 12.0 M

B Harper 13.6 M

D Duffy 13.0 M

E Hosmer 12.3 M

M Prado 2.3

 

 

 

Based upon the activity to this point the QO for next season has moved to 17.4.   There are still a number of players who either were among the top 125 AAV salaries for 2016 or are expected to become one of the 125.   Those with a * are those that would seem to be/remain among the 125.

 

Pending;

 

Rasmus 15.8 M

Anderson 15.8 M

Wieters 15.8 M

J Weaver 17.0 M

CJ Wilson 15.5 M

J Peavy 12.0 M

De La Rosa 12.5 M

A Hill 11.7 M

Bautista 13.0 M*

Encarnacion *

Trumbo *

Napoli *

 

If signings go as I expect the QO will fall back below 17 M....my guess 16.7 M

 

The final and uncertain factor would be players under team control accepting extensions .ie, Kris Bryant 8 years 240 M.   The more likely scenario would be extending a 2018 FA;

JD Martinez

Moustakes

Hosmer

Lucroy

"Cargo"

Tyler Chatwood

 

Or a 2019 big ticket Harper, Machado, Donaldson, McCutchen, A Jones, Darvish, Kuechel, Harvey etc.  

 

This year will not see the big jump in the QO, although the 17.2 influenced the number of players being offered the QO and should do so again next year with another "weak" class.

With the depth of the 2019 class we can expect another giant step for 2020.



#32 yogib8

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Posted 25 January 2017 - 05:37 PM

All the minuses and pluses are flushed out.  The remaining unsigned names from the Pending list have been added to the Minus list.

 

Minuses;

Fielder 23.8 M

Teixeria 22.5 M

Ortiz 16.0 M

A Rodriquez 21.0 M

Holliday 4.0 M

RA Dickey 4.5

B Anderson 15.8 M

J Abreu .5 M

C Rasmus 15.8 M

M Wieters 15.8 M

J Weaver 17.0 M

CJ Wilson 15.5 M

J Peavy 12.0 M

A Hill 11.7 M

J De La Rosa 12.5 M

C Crisp 11.0 M

 

 

Pluses;

Beltran 1.0 M

Fowler 3.5 M

Cespedes 2.5 M

Chapman 3.9 M

Melancon 15.5 M

Jansen 4.3 M

Walker 17.2 M

Colon 12.5 M

Volquez 1.0 M

R Hill 16.0 M

Desmond 14.0 M

Reddick 13.0 M

Morales 11.0 M

Gomez 11.5 M

Cashner 10.0 M

Turner 16.0 M

Encarnacion 20. M

Trumbo 12.5

Bautista 5.5 M

M Machado 11.5 M

Z Britton 11.4 M

C Bucholtz .5M

T Frazier 12 M

J Bruce .5 M

N Arenado 14.8 M 

W Myers 13.9 M

J Garcia .5 M

G Gonzales 12.0 M

B Harper 13.6 M

D Duffy 13.0 M

E Hosmer 12.3 M

M Prado 2.3

 

After all (nearly) is said and done, the bottom line is a slight increase 17.3-4.  While the monetary level of the QO is set, the value has changed with the new CBA. 

 

Gone are the protected 1st round picks, the loss of 1st round pick is no longer an obstacle.   The new CBA rolls out 3 tiers of rules for signing or losing a QO player. 

 

Revenue sharing has previously determined the haves and have nots by market size not actual revenue.  That split was 15 teams small market and 15 large market.  Today there are 16 small market teams with the A's being phased out of the small market and into the large market where they belong. 

 

  MLB put the A's in the small market segment initially because of the condition of their stadium, years later the A's have accomplished nothing in the effort (?) to improve their lot.  They will continue to collect  diminished revenue sharing over the next 4 seasons.

 

Small Market teams make up one of the new tiers,  should a team in this category sign a player they will lose their 3rd round pick.  If they lose a player to a  contract exceeding 50 M they will gain a pick following the 1st round of the draft, if the contract is less than 50 M their compensatory pick would follow the second round.

 

The next tier is the Luxury Tax teams;   should they lose a player with a QO they will pick after the 4th round.   Signing a player with a QO will cost them their 2nd and 5th round picks and 1 M of their international signing money.   If the team is over the Luxury Tax threshold by 40 M, their 1st round draft pick will slide down 10 places.  It isn't specified that an all ready low 1st round draft choice would fall behind those selecting at the top of the second round, so I'm assuming that the wording should be up to 10 places.

 

The final group is the "none of the above"  making them large market, but under the LT threshold.  Teams in this class will be compensated for the loss of a QO player with a pick following the 3rd round.   Teams that sign a player with a QO will lose their 2nd round draft choice and 500K of international money. 

 

These new rules don't come into play until after the 2017 season and the rule 4 draft of June 2018.  One final difference is that a player can be offered a QO only once which for the mid-tier player is a benefit, although it certainly benefited Rasmus, Wieters and Anderson last season and probably Walker this season.   Hellickson, imo, may not have reached an AAV of 17.2 M but pitched well enough in front of a poor BP to warrant a multi-year in the 15-16 M range.






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