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24 replies to this topic

#1 Saxon

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Posted 18 December 2016 - 12:37 PM

I don't have any answers...this is a question...

 

with all the stats out there, is there a stat that is relatively accurate in stating a player's likelihood of scoring from 1st base?

 

What I'm gettting at is...

 

If Reyes is batting leadoff and has a .333 OBP, if he starts off on first base, what is his likelihood of scoring vs the same scenario of Lucas Duda batting 5th having a .333 OBP, if he starts on first base?

 

and the counter part of that:

If Thor walks a batter with no outs and Travis d'Arnaud behind the plate; how more likely is it that he'll allow the walk/single to score than say, Carlos Martinez walking a batter with no outs with Yadier Molina behind the plate?



#2 Saxon

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Posted 18 December 2016 - 12:44 PM

In the first scenario, you have a fast runner getting on base with the 2/3/4/5 hitters coming up...he can steal 2nd to be in scoring position, or get to 2nd on a fielder's choice, or get to 3rd on a single, or score on a double from the heart of the lineup...vs a slow tank with the bottom of the order (guys that don't hit as well, and are less likely to get XBH's to drive him in)...

 

In the 2nd scenario, you have one of the best pitchers in majors when it comes to "swings and misses", has a low WHIP, and also doesn't allow many HRs; pitching to one of the worst throwing catchers since Mike Piazza, and Thor is as bad at holding runners as Doc Gooden was...vs a formidable pitcher that isn't quite as good in the "swings and misses", Low WHIP, and low HRs allowed department (but is still much better than a typical starter); but he's better at controlling the runners, has the best throwing catcher who also is a very good game caller, and has a better defense behind him... 



#3 Saxon

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Posted 18 December 2016 - 12:53 PM

out of curiosity, I looked up Gooden's numbers by catchers (excluding non-Mets):

 

Charlie O'Brien: 34.7 % caught stealing;

Mackey Sasser: 25 % CS;

Gary Carter: 22 % CS;

 

Todd Hundley: 16 % CS;

Barry Lyons: 10 % CS; (6 out of 58);

Mike Fitzgerald: 10 % CS; (4 out of 40);

 

Note: in fairness to Mike Fitzgerald, while he might have only caught 4 base runners while allowing 36 steals; 

the other 3 catchers combined allowed 11 steals while only throwing out 1 runner.

 

http://www.baseball-...=1984&t=p#catch

 

and while Carter's numbers don't sound impressive, he threw out 9 out of 27 runners in 1985 ( 33.3 %) ...whereas, when Carter was not catching Doc in his first 2 seasons, Doc allowed 51 steals while only allowing his catchers to throw out 6 runners ( 10.7 %)

 

As great as Doc was, he had an obvious weakness towards the running game...very similar to what Thor got exploited with in 2016...Gary Carter's defensive ability, combined with his veteran leadership, helped settle Doc down and was probably as important as his bat...While Rene Rivera is not exactly Gary Carter, he seemed to have a more positive effect on Thor in 2016.



#4 brian stark

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Posted 18 December 2016 - 07:26 PM

There is one, I remember reading a Baseball Prospectus or maybe even (going WAY back) a Baseball Abstract that had it.

 

I don't remember what the stat was called and can't even begin to think of how to look for it, but it's out there somewhere.



#5 yogib8

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Posted 20 December 2016 - 03:06 PM

 

is there a stat that is relatively accurate in stating a player's likelihood of scoring from 1st base?

 

 

Fangraphs has a matrix that projects run expectancy from each base/out state, but is not player specific.

 

http://tangotiger.net/re24.html



#6 Saxon

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Posted 20 December 2016 - 04:08 PM

thanks yogi...only problem is, those graphs/tables do not take into account for speed or the lack there of...not all runners are created equal, and I am trying to something that distinguishes between the fast guys that can't hit, the slow guys that get to first base, and the fast guys that can get on base...



#7 yogib8

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Posted 21 December 2016 - 02:57 PM

thanks yogi...only problem is, those graphs/tables do not take into account for speed or the lack there of...not all runners are created equal, and I am trying to something that distinguishes between the fast guys that can't hit, the slow guys that get to first base, and the fast guys that can get on base...

If you are familiar with FanGraphs, it will allow you to create a player-player comparison on a wide variety of stats.  BsR and spd being what you may be hunting. 

 

The following is the set up for BsR (spd) is under advanced.  I set it for 2015-16 and for 700 ABs, to capture Reyes.  You also have the values for BsR and spd defined in the other two links. 

 

 

http://www.fangraphs...=18,d&page=3_30

 

http://www.fangraphs...ry/offense/bsr/

 

http://www.fangraphs...ry/offense/spd/


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#8 Saxon

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Posted 21 December 2016 - 08:04 PM

2 guys that are fast that don't score as often as you expect are the 2 rumored lefty CFer platoon candidates that Dru shared in another thread....could be the combination of lack of XBH's and the lack of OBP...Ben Revere and Michael Bourn...

 

and going back a few years, but Luis Castillo had a high OBP and stole a good amount of bases, but only averaged 86 runs scored per season in his prime...only topping 100 runs scored once in his career

 

http://www.baseball-...atting_standard



#9 yogib8

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Posted 21 December 2016 - 09:48 PM

2 guys that are fast that don't score as often as you expect are the 2 rumored lefty CFer platoon candidates that Dru shared in another thread....could be the combination of lack of XBH's and the lack of OBP...Ben Revere and Michael Bourn...

 

and going back a few years, but Luis Castillo had a high OBP and stole a good amount of bases, but only averaged 86 runs scored per season in his prime...only topping 100 runs scored once in his career

 

http://www.baseball-...atting_standard

 

In the case of Castillo, don't look at the 86 runs as the conclusion.   Look at a player whose on base events started on 1B 90.2%.

of his 1452 hits, excluding Hrs.  plus BB, HBP and ROE only 208 were XBH.  The reality is that even with a power handicap he still scored on 35.5% of his onbase events over a 9 year period.  

 

That is good for a team that played .483 ball over the span of that period.



#10 Saxon

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Posted 21 December 2016 - 11:18 PM

true enough but...Juan Pierre, who played in a similar situation to Castillo, got on base less often...didn't have much power either...yet he scored at a decent clip (not Jose Reyes in his prime 4 years, but still about 100 runs per season)...

 

and while maybe I have favored Reyes a bit more than most fans in the past...there haven't been many speedy shortstops (or speedsters in general) that put up a combination like Reyes did from 2005-2008...Reyes averaged 300 "Total Bases"; 64 steals; 62 XBH; 66 RBI; .783 OPS; 195 hits; 113 runs; and 56 walks with only 80 strikeouts while possessing a cannon of an arm playing the most demanding defensive position on the diamond...

 

http://www.baseball-...atting_standard



#11 yogib8

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Posted 22 December 2016 - 03:47 PM

true enough but...Juan Pierre, who played in a similar situation to Castillo, got on base less often...didn't have much power either...yet he scored at a decent clip (not Jose Reyes in his prime 4 years, but still about 100 runs per season)...

 

 

Juan Pierre put together a remarkable stretch of 7 seasons 2001-07 in which he missed 16 games.   Using my methodology by eliminating Hr.  He scored at a 37.6% rate for that period.   I use 29% as Lg. avg.  

 

 http://www.baseball-...pierrju01.shtml

 

There has been some talk that the Mets are in the market for a CF, specifically Billy Hamilton.  Hamilton has a history of a low OBP, but that may have changed (think Murphy). 

 

In Apr. Hamilton hit .218 with an OBP of .283, May; somewhat better .259/.294. At this point Hamilton had 45 games played with only 148 PA, yet scored 22 runs on 33 H including 1 Hr. 8 BB, 1 HBP and 10 SB. Eliminating the Hr. he had scored on 51.2% of his onbase opportunities. Extraordinary.

From Jun1-Sept. 4 when he was lost for the season with an oblique injury BH hit .269/.336 and stole 48 bags in 74 games (312 PA) and scored a net 44.6% of his onbase opportunities. Extraordinary. 

 

Hamilton is 25 with 3 years of control, and may still have an offensive power upside that has yet developed, but what he is right now is a player who seems to have found a key last season, plays a plus CF and can turn SBs into Runs scored. 

 



#12 Saxon

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Posted 22 December 2016 - 08:00 PM

when I think of Hamilton, I think of Esix Snead...

 

Snead stole 507 bases in the minors, but also had a career minor league OPS of .621...

 

http://www.baseball-...id=snead-001esi



#13 yogib8

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Posted 23 December 2016 - 02:25 PM

Esix Snead the personification of "cup of coffee".  14 ML PA, " cup of instant coffee".  

 

No comparison to Hamilton.....the player, not the Broadway show.



#14 Saxon

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Posted 23 December 2016 - 02:36 PM

Esix Snead the personification of "cup of coffee".  14 ML PA, " cup of instant coffee".  

 

No comparison to Hamilton.....the player, not the Broadway show.

 

the comparison was:

 

super fast, but couldn't hit their way out of a wet paper bag with a sharp machete...



#15 yogib8

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Posted 25 December 2016 - 03:44 PM

the comparison was:

 

super fast, but couldn't hit their way out of a wet paper bag with a sharp machete...

 

That comparison may have been relevant once upon a time.  But as of late I repeat; 

 

From Jun1-Sept. 4 when he was lost for the season with an oblique injury BH hit .269/.336 and stole 48 bags in 74 games (312 PA) and scored a net 44.6% of his onbase opportunities. Extraordinary. 

 

This thread may seem like a private conversation, but if OK with Saxon I invite others to join in. 






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