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#16 brian stark

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Posted 25 December 2016 - 09:26 PM

Don't know if yogi will welcome ME as a commenter, but here it is.

 

I like what Hamilton brings in the speed column, but as Saxon noted, he does not have a good history to reflect on.

 

While the four month or so stretch noted by yogi COULD be a sign of development, there are two caveats, IMO.

 

1. Do you risk basing the next three years on 312 PAs with many coming in the hitter-loving GAP or the previous 1200 or so PAs?

2. Oblique injuries can be reoccurring, and he already has a batting contact issue. That's not a good combination. 

 

If Hamilton is healthy and his four month deal was really a light going off, then sure, he's an interesting option.

 

Can we risk that? What will it cost to get him?

 

The one DEFINITE positive he has is GREAT defense in center. Elite, really. I'm not sure which way to feel on him.



#17 Saxon

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Posted 26 December 2016 - 06:52 PM

at least he's a slightly better hitter vs RHP than LHP, which would help him match up with Lags...



#18 Saxon

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Posted 29 December 2016 - 09:49 PM

A statistical comparison of 2 players from 2009 thru 2016:

 

Player A (not considered a power hitter, and considered a chronic injury machine);

Player B (considered a power hitter, and considered very reliable up to this point);

 

yearly averages:

Player A: .291/.340/.427/.767;

Player B: .286/.366/.458/.824;

 

yearly average stat totals:

Player A: 68 runs; 42 RBI; 25 steals; 34 walks; 51 strikeouts; 6 GDP; 193 "Total Bases"; 

Player B: 61 runs; 60 RBI; 13 steals; 53 walks; 99 strikeouts; 11 GDP; 192 "Total Bases";

 

same stats averaged over 162 games played (in otherwords, if they played a full season w/o missing a game):

Player A: 107 runs; 63 RBI; 38 steals; 52 walks; 77 strikeouts; 9 GDP; 289 "Total Bases";

Player B: 90 runs; 89 RBI; 20 steals; 78 walks; 146 strikeouts; 16 GDP; 283 "Total Bases";



#19 yogib8

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Posted 30 December 2016 - 02:36 PM

Player A is Jose Reyes and B is DW.   A similarity is that over the last 8 seasons less than 15 games played separate the two.  They is also a very small (10) difference in TB.  Was that the point?

 

 

Meanwhile an addition;

 

Player A (not considered a power hitter, and considered a chronic injury machine);

Player B (considered a power hitter, and considered very reliable up to this point);

Player C (not considered a power hitter, and considered reliable.

 

yearly averages:

Player A: .291/.340/.427/.767;

Player B: .286/.366/.458/.824;

Player C: .296/.337/.446/.783

 

yearly average stat totals:

Player A: 68 runs; 42 RBI; 25 steals; 34 walks; 51 strikeouts; 6 GDP; 193 "Total Bases"; 

Player B: 61 runs; 60 RBI; 13 steals; 53 walks; 99 strikeouts; 11 GDP; 192 "Total Bases";

Player C: 69 runs; 70 RBI; 11 SB; 34 BB; 67 strikeouts; 12 GDP; 239 "Total Bases".

 

You can probably guess Player C, but I doubt if you envisioned how he fit into your comparison. 



#20 Saxon

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Posted 30 December 2016 - 03:38 PM

I'd guess Granderson, except the BB and strikeout total are pretty low for Grandy...



#21 Saxon

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Posted 30 December 2016 - 04:03 PM

so far I am using the theory that Player C was either a Met, or was rumored to be acquired by the Mets...

 

Daniel Murphy? 

 

(by the way, making the guesses without looking up their 2009-2016 B/R stats)...



#22 Saxon

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Posted 30 December 2016 - 04:15 PM

ok...so I guessed right with Murphy...

 

and Murphy fits into the point that I was making with the Player A vs Player B comparison...

 

Pretty much from day 1, the organization (owners/Sandy) viewed Wright as superior to Reyes (and Murphy) for various reasons:

Better Power;

Better OBP;

Drew a ton of walks by taking a lot of pitches;

Reliable;

Alleged Gold Glove 3rd baseman (not quite sure how much they paid people to vote for him on that award);

 

They decided to sink a ton of money into Wright, while deciding that neither Reyes or Murphy were worth it...

 

yet, their stats since Shea Stadium closed aren't that far off from each other; with the primary difference being the Mets gave Murphy a total of about $19 Mil from 2009 on; gave Reyes $26 Mil...but gave David Wright $180 Mil from 2009 on...

 

yes, Wright had a better HR & BB ratio than the other 2 players...but his overall Total Bases was not better; and when you consider that Reyes has more steals, less GiDP's, and significantly less strikeouts that also evens the field a bit in Reyes' favor vs Wright in terms of ROI (plus it doesn't show up in Reyes' stats but how many defensive mistakes and/or extra hittable pitches to other batters were due to Reyes' speed?



#23 yogib8

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Posted 30 December 2016 - 05:04 PM

(by the way, making the guesses without looking up their 2009-2016 B/R stats)...

 

 

Used FanGraphs which allowed me to set the search parameter of the period and 3000 PA, you gave me the BA which pinpointed Jose and DW.  With only 147 players and knowing that Murph would be near .300 he was easy to find as well.

 

Interesting challenge for an overcast damp day.  


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#24 Saxon

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Posted 30 December 2016 - 07:38 PM

 

Interesting challenge for an overcast damp day.  

 

baseball is the only sport that I follow, so I have been trying to do little things that are baseball related to try to keep from being totally bored before Spring Training begins...

 

by the way, I used to use fangraphs more, but I found that their WAR numbers aren't consistent with other baseball sites...



#25 yogib8

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Posted 31 December 2016 - 05:20 PM

Don't know if yogi will welcome ME as a commenter, but here it is.

 

I like what Hamilton brings in the speed column, but as Saxon noted, he does not have a good history to reflect on.

 

While the four month or so stretch noted by yogi COULD be a sign of development, there are two caveats, IMO.

 

1. Do you risk basing the next three years on 312 PAs with many coming in the hitter-loving GAP or the previous 1200 or so PAs?

2. Oblique injuries can be reoccurring, and he already has a batting contact issue. That's not a good combination. 

 

If Hamilton is healthy and his four month deal was really a light going off, then sure, he's an interesting option.

 

Can we risk that? What will it cost to get him?

 

The one DEFINITE positive he has is GREAT defense in center. Elite, really. I'm not sure which way to feel on him.

 

Didn't spot this post when it was put up.

 

There is a risk in judging future performance on a sample size of 3 months, but there are indicators of a 25 yr. old player progressing.  Through his first 3 seasons his BB% was 5.8 which is poor...last season it was up to 7.8 % for the season and 9% in that 312 PA sample.   Part of the correction was an increase in Pit/PA which is just below ML avg. 

 

When he first came to stay 2014 his SB% was 71, over the past two seasons it is 88%.  I see all these positives as evidence of a teachable player who is making an effort to improve his skills.  

 

What is undeniable is his base running ability.  In the 2013-15 period with the sub .300 OBP, 85% of his onbase events were initiated on 1B and he scored  43% of the time.    

 

In 2014 he essentially replaced Shin-Soo Choo who scored 107 runs with an OBP .423 and was rewarded with a 7 yr. 130 M contract.  Choo scored on 31% of his on base events and had an XBT percentage of 40%. 

 

Hamilton scored on 38% of his on base events and had  63% XBT.   

 

This type of player is rare, we saw the end of Ricky Henderson's career, Maury Wills, Vince Coleman and the young Jose...all with ability to imprint their will on the game and disrupt the defense.  

 

The Reds need pitching and next season will be Brandon Phillips last.   I send them Jay Bruce back to where he is comfortable, Gsellman and Cecchini,  should Herrera not work out,  and get Hamilton and Michael Lorenzen a big 24 yr. old RH RP who pitched 50 innings last season with 48 Ks and only 13 BB.  2.88 ERA and a whip of 1.08.

 

They get Bruce whom they can flip at the deadline plus two players with a full 6 years of control each and we have traded from depth.






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