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2017/18 Mets Hot Stove - The Winter Meeting

#MetsOffSeason Hot Stove 2017/18 Winter Meeting

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#46 yogib8

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Posted 02 November 2017 - 03:21 PM

This was posted on the wrong thread ....see it on Random Off-season thoughts

 

 

Very well done Jeff, I'll add a name that I think will be in play for 3B free agents.  Jed Lowrie has a 6.5 M option that the A's are unlikely to pick up.  Joey Wendle, their 3B of the future had an eye opening Sept. call up after 3 seasons of consistent .285/.765 hitting, SB speed and a solid glove at 3B.  

 

Lowrie, 33  is coming off a strong season .277/.808 with 14 Hrs.  He is also a sure glove but may be losing a step. 

 

 

 

The addition of another viable 3B will help to drive prices down in the FA market. 

 

I also looked at who where the Mets stiffest completion for one of the better choices, I used team OPS at 3B with.750 as my  threshold.   11 teams fell below .750 ranging from the Yankees at .741 to the Giants at .568.   I eliminated six teams as not being in play for a 3B for mostly obvious reasons.  Rays, CWS, Marlins, Phillies, Braves and Pirates who lost Jung Ho Kang to a visa issue created by his conviction for DWI in S. Korea.  And the Red Sox who rode Sandoval .212/.622 and Deven Marrero .211/.593 until they released Sandoval and brought up a unanimous top 20 prospect Rafael Devers who hit .284/.819 in 58 games with 10 Hrs.

 

Which leaves the Yankees, Giants, Angels and Mets.   The Yankees will abandon any hope of reducing their payroll to under 189 M.  After this season and coming within 1 game of the WS the Yankees will spend money.

 

The Giants will need to spend on the rotation as well as the lineup, as the Giants went from 87 wins to 64 in 2017 as they were outscored 145 runs.   The Giants were 14th in Runs and had a slash line that was 11th/14th/15th/15th.  The rotation went from 4th in ERA to 8th, 4th in H to 14th and from 7th in SVs to 15th.  The Giants are facing only a net 16M increase in committed salary.   Crawford and Pence had poor seasons, depth players Stubbs, Morse, Ruggiano and Aaron Hill all got old at the same time.  The Giants will need to find two starts....maybe three if Cueto opts out and leaves 4years and 89 M on the table.  A full season by Bumgarner will go a long way to bring the team back up.  So will replacing the worst 3B stats in  MLB.

 

The Angels were carried last season by the pitching staff, the lineup slash line was a dismal 14th/11th/15th/15th.   The Angels have 37 M coming off the books and another 20 M if they pass on options for Nolasco and Street.  They face only a 22 M increase  in committed salary. Three of the FA are players that should have needed to be replaced after the poor season they had at 2B, 3B and LF.  The Angels would like to keep Justin Upton which would be an immense upgrade.   If the Angels let Nolesco go they will need to replace two starting pitchers,  fortunately they have Garrett Richards and Alex Meyer ready to take the ball.   They also have an enthusiastic owner in Arty Moreno willing to spend money as needed.

 

The Mets will not spend on the same level with these teams and the Mets have as many if not more questions marks as any of them.   Conforto's health...the health of the rotation,  Cecchini, Dom Brown and Rosario haven't hit,  Cespedes has missed 110 games in the past two seasons and takes plays off when it suits him with immunity.  With DW doubtful and Grandy gone there is no leadership.  

 

Maybe the FO has come to the same conclusion and will take the same path as last season pick up Cabrera, offer 35 yr. old Reyes a 2 year 16 M contract add  an OF like Colby Rasmus, M Upton or Seth Smith.  The FO also wants a veteran SP to eat up innings...some low hanging fruit could be Clayton Richard or Jhoulys Chacin.



#47 Saxon

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Posted 02 November 2017 - 07:10 PM

We need some Kung Fu Panda at 3B...



#48 mjjm367

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Posted 02 November 2017 - 07:23 PM

We need some Kung Fu Panda at 3B...

 

Damn, now I want some Chinese food.



#49 Drucifer

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Posted 12 November 2017 - 11:29 AM

Assessing the Mets' priorities on the eve of the GM Meetings

The GM meetings are the precursor to the Winter Meetings in December

:metsblog: by ANDY MARTINO
 
With a new manager in Mickey Callaway and a coaching staff in place, Sandy Alderson can now focus his full attention on the Mets' roster. This is a significant offseason for the GM, who is in the homestretch of his tenure, and who must return the franchise to the relevance it enjoyed in 2015 and 2016.

That work will accelerate this week in Orlando, Fla. The GM meetings kick off baseball's offseason, and serve as a miniature version of next month's winter meetings, that annual extravaganza of trades, free agent signings, and grizzled old managers at the hotel bar. The GM meetings are more low-key, but represent an important first step in the hot stove action.

This week and beyond, the big national story figures to be the Giancarlo Stanton trade sweepstakes (neither New York team is expected to be a major player there). The Yankees are interviewing managerial candidates, making their GM, Brian Cashman, a person to watch in Orlando.

Meanwhile, Alderson and his staff will meet with player agents and executives from other teams, and accelerate their work on various fronts. With the Mets unwilling to trade starting pitching or Juan Lagares, free agency is the more likely path for them to add players this winter.

According to my reporting, the Mets' offseason priorities are as follows.

 

Find a second baseman

The team will be looking hard for appealing second base options. Brian Dozier and Dee Gordon are the most intriguing trade candidates (if the Twins make Dozier available), but the Mets are not initially optimistic about finding a match with Minnesota or Miami. The Mets could also seek a reunion with Neil Walker. Jose Reyes is a maybe -- since the team knows he wants to return, they're not in a particular hurry to get that done.

Find a late-inning reliever

The Mets believe that they have three reliable late-inning options: Jeurys Familia, AJ Ramos, and Jerry Blevins. They want one more. Bryan Shaw, anyone?

 

Find a first baseman/corner outfield type

The uncertainty around Dominic Smith leaves the Mets seeking insurance at first base, and they would love a Jay Bruce-type who can move between that position and the outfield. But my understanding is that the team does not expect to pursue Bruce himself. That would only change if a market fails to develop -- unlikely, because Jay Bruce is good at baseball. Logan Morrison would work, but there seems to be heat around Morrison and the Royals. Also, the Mets are comfortable with Wilmer Flores playing significant time at first base.

 

Maybe find an innings-eating starter

But also, maybe not. Bullpen is a higher priority.

This list represents the Mets' internal thinking at the moment. Could it change? Sure. Each offseason market has its own surprises (remember how the Mets were ready to move on from Yoenis Cespedes, until they looked around and realized that no one else was bidding on him?).

My understanding is that they're not looking for a 1B/3B type like Todd Frazier, and are expecting Asdrubal Cabrera to be the third baseman in 2018. I wouldn't be shocked if that changed, once the market clarifies. Same with center field. Right now, that's not front burner, but what if a center fielder ultimately represents better value than a corner guy? Could happen.

It's all theoretical until the hot stove season begins … and the hot stove season begins in earnest this week.

I'll be in Orlando covering the GM meetings. For reporting and analysis, watch this space -- and tune in to Hot Stove and Baseball Night in New York at 6 p.m. every night on SNY, and GEICO SportsNite at 10:30 p.m. You can also follow me on Twitter at @martinonyc.

:source:



#50 NYMet5

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Posted 12 November 2017 - 12:28 PM

Thanks for posting Drucifer.  Martino's article reads: The Mets will sign Jose Reyes and Brian Shaw and sit back and call it a job.....done.

 

OK, so that above sentence is made with some sarcasm but it isnt exactly an inspiring article.  Lots of excuses as to why the Mets will not get their most sought after assets and will settle, not do anything or need to let the market development and see which player is left without a partner.

 

You know cause thats how a team "going for it" acts.

 

Luckily one of the things this FO has been good at is not showing their chips to the media so Martino's inside perspective could have nothing substantial behind it.



#51 yogib8

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Posted 12 November 2017 - 02:59 PM

.

Each offseason market has its own surprises (remember how the Mets were ready to move on from Yoenis Cespedes, until they looked around and realized that no one else was bidding on him?).

 

 

No Andy Martino, I don't remember that.   What I remember is the Mets resigning Cespedes for a position player high of an AAV of 27.5 M.  I remember that Cespedes was the only free agent to sign a 9 digit contract as well.

 

 

 With the Mets unwilling to trade starting pitching or Juan Lagares, free agency is the more likely path for them to add players this winter

 

 

Does Martino expect anyone to believe that there is active interest in Lagares?   I repeat from an earlier post;  

  

Lagares is a one tool player.

 

He has missed 110 games over the past two seasons, in those he played he hit .246/.298/.371/.669 and is still owed 15.5 M for the next two season. 

 

He doesn't get on base or steal a base, he has no power.   Of the 170 games he appeared in he started 80 and 39 of those were in the last 2 months of 2017 after the Mets lost Cespedes, Conforto and traded Bruce and Grandy.  

 

I believe we can now Identify Martino as a one tool scribe, and he is standing knee deep in that one tool


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#52 mjjm367

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Posted 12 November 2017 - 04:29 PM

 

I believe we can now Identify Martino as a one tool scribe, and he is standing knee deep in that one tool

 

 

:rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl:

 

That made me laugh so hard that the damn cat almost jumped off the fireplace mantel in surprise.

 

All the more amazing when you consider that the cat is ceramic.



#53 West Coast Mets Fan

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Posted 12 November 2017 - 08:56 PM

Thanks for posting Drucifer.  Martino's article reads: The Mets will sign Jose Reyes and Brian Shaw and sit back and call it a job.....done.

 

OK, so that above sentence is made with some sarcasm but it isnt exactly an inspiring article.  Lots of excuses as to why the Mets will not get their most sought after assets and will settle, not do anything or need to let the market development and see which player is left without a partner.

 

You know cause thats how a team "going for it" acts.

 

Luckily one of the things this FO has been good at is not showing their chips to the media so Martino's inside perspective could have nothing substantial behind it.

It's embarrassing watching the Mets do the dumpster diving act again.


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#54 Canada Mets Fan

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Posted 14 November 2017 - 07:59 AM

From an article on the GM Meetings: "It’s tough to be competitive if you’re overly concentrated in two or three players," New York Mets general manager Sandy Alderson said. "I think we experienced some of that last year."

 

Okay, so what's the plan/remedy for this year????



#55 NYMet5

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Posted 14 November 2017 - 08:46 AM

From an article on the GM Meetings: "It’s tough to be competitive if you’re overly concentrated in two or three players," New York Mets general manager Sandy Alderson said. "I think we experienced some of that last year."

 

Okay, so what's the plan/remedy for this year????

Does that mean it's tough to be competitive if you rely on 2-3 players too much (ie if they get hurt your screwed) or it's tough to be competitive if you've invested massive amounts of money in 2-3 players (ie the cheapons won't spend on anyone else good).



#56 yogib8

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Posted 14 November 2017 - 12:44 PM

Does that mean it's tough to be competitive if you rely on 2-3 players too much (ie if they get hurt your screwed) or it's tough to be competitive if you've invested massive amounts of money in 2-3 players (ie the cheapons won't spend on anyone else good).

 

I believe that it is the latter.  The Mets opened the 2016 season with a salary 135.2 M, an increase of nearly 34 M over 2015, they closed 2016 at 156.8 M.  During the course of the season the Mets FO added Loney, Bruce, reyes, K Johnson, Ruggiano, Niese and Henderson...They also used 46 players over the course of 2016.  The 156.8 M salary at the close of 2016 was 47 M higher than the year before.

 

I believe that Wilpon intended to reduce payroll to about 145 M for 2017, but the FO spent everything 52.7 M on 3 new  player salaries by the end of Nov. which didn't include the arbitration increases for 9 other players.   This scenario explains the 10 weeks of silence until Wilpon bumped the budget up to add Salas and Blevins because the FO wasn't able to flip Bruce as designed. 

 

Wilpon isn't the villain because he doesn't issue blank checks, he gave his GM a budget and then watched as the GM acted like a teenager with a pre-loaded debit card blowing through the funds on sneakers, pizza, and movie tickets in the first 3 days.

 

Met5 you write some terrific stuff with sound thought and analysis, in my humble opinion the Cheapons stuff is not your finest hour.   I'm still pleased that you are here helping to expand the thought and knowledge of our collective voices.



#57 brian stark

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Posted 14 November 2017 - 05:44 PM

yogi, is your first name fred?

 

Anyway, I posted this on the shout, but I've heard rumblings of the following POSSIBLE moves.

 

Lagares/Gsellman/Dom Smith/possibly lower prospect for Dee Gordon

 

Sign Lorenzo Cain

 

Sign Carlos Santana

 

Spend the rest of the offseason on pitching.

 

Interesting, if true. I could be convinced that those moves would be very good. 



#58 West Coast Mets Fan

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Posted 14 November 2017 - 06:09 PM

yogi, is your first name fred?

 

Anyway, I posted this on the shout, but I've heard rumblings of the following POSSIBLE moves.

 

Lagares/Gsellman/Dom Smith/possibly lower prospect for Dee Gordon

 

Sign Lorenzo Cain

 

Sign Carlos Santana

 

Spend the rest of the offseason on pitching.

 

Interesting, if true. I could be convinced that those moves would be very good. 

These would be great moves. I'll believe it when I see it. 



#59 NYMet5

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Posted 14 November 2017 - 09:19 PM

Wilpon isn't the villain because he doesn't issue blank checks, he gave his GM a budget and then watched as the GM acted like a teenager with a pre-loaded debit card blowing through the funds on sneakers, pizza, and movie tickets in the first 3 days.

 

Met5 you write some terrific stuff with sound thought and analysis, in my humble opinion the Cheapons stuff is not your finest hour.   I'm still pleased that you are here helping to expand the thought and knowledge of our collective voices.

Absolutely love the forum and the intellect of the posters and am happy to be here.

 

Let me try and better explain my Wilpon posts.  My whole negative Wilpon theme comes from the strong rumors we have heard regarding payroll so far this off season (reduction likely compared to 2017, $145M budget) coupled with how the team has acted historically in the off season, post 2010.

 

I think I've mentioned before I have no issue with the team staying below the luxury tax threshold.  I have no desire to see the team be a perennial top 5 spender.  I am anti "spend for the sake of spending"

 

BUT

 

The organization has gone on record saying they are going to compete for a playoff spot in 2018.  If any business declares they are all in on producing results, they need to invest appropriately to get those results.

 

It is known there are numerous holes in the roster:

 

Late game reliever, Mid rotation starter, Middle of the order bat, leadoff bat IMO are musts.

 

A second middle reliever, a veteran backup catcher and a veteran bench player would be nice adds as well although not as urgent as the above.

 

With that said I expect ownership to provide funds to fill ALL those above holes with players of a quality that you would expect to see on a playoff team.  The only good reason I could think of to not do that, is if the team was fast approaching the luxury tax cut off and didnt want to go over.  But we are FAR from that.

 

I cant see not finding a match with a FA or trading partner as a valid excuse either.  It may be a valid excuse in specific cases but between all the FA RP's, SP's, position players and than the trade target RP's, SP's and position players there are likely 30-50 players available this off season who would meet our needs of being  a quality addition.  If we are willing to pay a reasonable fair market salary for them, there are enough guys available to fill all our holes. 

 

So if all the holes arent filled how can we blame anything other than the team not  being willing to exceed a limited budget? 

 

The Orioles, Nationals, Rangers, Cubs, Giants, Red Sox, Angels and Tigers all spent between $164M and $199M on their opening day payrolls in 2017.  I purposely left out the Yankees and Dodgers because those teams can operate at a different financial level when motivated.  That payroll range of 164-199 for those 8 bigger market teams I think represents a good baseline for where the Mets should spend IF they have needs to fill and we all know they have needs to fill.

 

Now I dont think their needs require them to get in the $190M, $180 or even $170M payroll range, but a opening day roster at $155-$165M would almost certainly be a fairly complete roster the FO, owners and we as fans would feel good about making the playoffs.

 

Let's look at the rumors that came out tonight.

 

Trade for Gordon, sign Santana, sign Cain.  If they do that I'm all for it of course, and would give the Wilpons CREDIT for spending and the FO credit for getting it done.  Those moves though would likely add $35M to the payroll though without even addressing the bullpen or rotation so I just can't be too confident it will go down.  If the above players are simply not a match, there are others that the Mets could pursue at similar prices (Kipnis, Dozier, Kinsler, Walker, Morrison, Bruce, Fowler, Frazier). So again, if the Mets dont do something similar to those above rumors I cant help but think it is payroll motivated.

 

If the Mets fill all or most of their roster holes I will 100% give the FO and the Wilpons ALL the credit in the world for getting it done regardless of where the payroll falls.  I just dont see how they can do it wihtout being in the $150-$160M range.

 

 I'm not really concerned where the payroll number is at the end of the offseason but just that all our needs are filled with a quality asset.  I just have a hard time seeing how that can happen for $145M or less and I don't consider the $160M payroll (that would likely include fixes to all of the Mets issues) to be exorbitant.


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#60 NYMet5

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Posted 14 November 2017 - 09:34 PM

One more point.  I purposely left out Martinez, Hosmer, Moustakas, Darvish and Arrieta out of the above post. While I might not be as cautious as this FO in dolling out 5+ year contracts I do see merit in their overall philosophy of limiting those types of long term handcuffing deals.

 

The guys we should be pursuing (as illustrated in the latest hot stove rumors) are guys expeced to sign 3, max 4 year deals at AAV's between $12M-$18M.  As a team that currently sits $70-$80M below the luxury tax we shouldnt be limited to only one of those such deals with all the holes we need to fill. But if we are to believe a $145M budget I dont see how we can afford more than one of those type additions while filling the other holes with cheap solutions.

 

I hope this is all a mute point in a few weeks and that we have traded for Gordon and signed Cain and Santana and Jhoulys Chacin and Brain Shaw.  I will be very happy and give the Wilpons and Sandy a TON of credit.


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